Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked ChatGPT to analyze all of the responses and highlight four key themes. Here’s what it found:

• 1. Most respondents expect steel prices to decline over the next three months due to soft demand and tariff-related uncertainty.
• Demand is slowing because buyers pulled forward orders ahead of tariffs, and they are now holding back.
• Inventory movement is mixed, but more report slower activity compared to last year.
• Few see benefit from tariffs. While some note attractive import pricing, most cite uncertainty, confusion, and concerns about longer import lead times and potential policy changes.

Want to share your thoughts in a future survey? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Steel prices are starting to top out unless demand increases. If demand is weak, then it will start to decrease in May or June.”

“Down, down, down. Nothing is going to keep this elevated. Demand is more, lead times are short, inventory levels are high, economy is shaky and the ‘summer doldrums’ aren’t even here yet! No bueno.”

“After many bought ahead of tariffs, I feel supply is in excess of demand and we will see prices moving lower.”

“Down, continued economic slowdown, dragging steel along with it due to Tariffpalooza/DOGE/etc.”

“Down, unless the Black Swan in D.C. takes actions. There is no, or very limited, real demand.”

“Start to slip, but I think mills will try hard to slow the price drop since imports are down significantly.”

“Slightly down over the next month, then who knows. If imports are below expected levels, then maybe a floor or slight strengthening. Demand will be just fine for Q2. If there are demand corrections it will be in Q3.”

“Prices will continue to erode.”

“Flat to slightly down. There is no momentum anymore.”

“Stable to slight reduction due to demand is slow.”

“Flat, the market has leveled out and everyone who has purchased is stocked up right now, so no more panic buying.”

“Flat to slightly up on plate.”

“Would expect prices are currently under some pressure, but only expect a minor correction with all the tariffs in place, unless demand starts to erode.”

“Prices will increase once tariffs are stabilized.”

“Up, inventory is very low at service centers and everybody is deferring ordering.”

“So much across the market uncertainty, it is hard to predict.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is slowing in the future months, mostly on the spot market side because so much material was pulled ahead in the current months.”

“Declining, over the past few weeks people have moved up their needs ahead of the tariffs and are waiting to see what happens in the market.”

“Declining, customers are pulling back waiting to see what the price will do.”

“Declining, but we are headed into our slow season, so for now not out of the ordinary.”

“Declining on economic uncertainty.”

“Demand is decreasing due to tariff uncertainty.”

“Demand is weak and expected to decrease in the future.”

“Demand seems sluggish these past 3-4 weeks.”

“Overall stable. I feel demand is OK (not great but not bad) and it likely won’t be improving within the next three months.”

“Demand is OK at best. I think everyone is putting cash back on the sidelines as they read the headlines and watch their portfolios plummet in value.”

“Stable due to administration uncertainty and constant changes.”

“Plate demand is currently stable to improving.”

“Improving.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Stable compared to full year last year.”

“Inventory is probably moving about the same, but we’re purposefully stocking less.”

“About the same, this is the period where shipments were strong before they started to decline last year.”

“On pace with last year.”

“Around the same, or slightly less with higher margin.”

“I hear inventory is moving better now as customer pull ahead orders, but should slow in the coming months.”

“Slower due to demand declining.”

“Inventory is moving slower due to tariff uncertainty.”

“Slower to start the year. Too much uncertainty in the market.”

“Seasonal slowdown plus a decrease in demand.”

“Slightly faster as customers place orders ahead of an announced price increase May 1.”

“Plate inventories are moving at a decent level and expected to improve.”

“Faster, more work and trying to avoid pricing increases.”

“Faster, less available in the entire supply chain.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Most buyers responding to this question (51%) are unsure how the policies will impact their business. Almost 40% feel their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs, and only 9% believe that the tariffs are helping their business. Comments included:

“Uncertainty and lack of clear stable direction.”

“Did help prices in the short term, but people are very scared about demand with how unpredictable his actions have been. Nobody is taking any risks right now and playing it safe.”

“I think if anything, they’re hurting us all, at least right now. Everyone is back to being unsure and uneasy about the macro economy – that is bad for business.”

“We may see some short-term gains as we have Canadian competition, but expect a long-term economic slowdown to be a bigger drag.”

“The steel and aluminum tariffs helped but, with the advent of universal tariffs, the markets are paralyzed.”

“They are creating chaos and hurting future demand.”

“Currently, prices seem to be dropping and buying has slowed due to tariff uncertainty.”

“Currently, not helping our business due to so much uncertainty, but we are hopeful they will help us in the long run.”

“Plate pricing rebound that was much needed. Long term, who knows?”

“Price increases will eventually slow growth.”

“We have not seen any impact yet since we do not purchase imports.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Over half of our respondents (57%) said it is too early to say. Of the remainder, 23% remarked they are seeing evidence of reshoring, while 20% said they have not. Comments included:

“Folks are talking about it and it makes for good headline, but are companies really moving back here for what could be just a four-year reprieve?”

“Only talk so far….”

“OEMs are looking into it, but they can’t move quickly and I guess that OEMs still think Trump might “change his mind” again.”

“Yes, but slowly.”

“The trend has been to reshore for years and tariffs will force this to increase but too early to see much action.”

“I haven’t seen any additional or increased buying, but I have heard news of more companies building manufacturing plants in the USA.”

“No, domestic pricing has increased equal to tariffs.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Still too many unknowns and imports are in line with futures contracts. Why take the risk of not getting the steel?”

“Imports have risk due to trade tariff changes and longer lead times than domestic mills.”

“No, the dollar is too weak.”

“Plate import offerings are not all that attractive for a dozen reasons at this point.”

“No one knows how the tariffs will end.”

“No, no deals to be had.”

“Pricing is attractive at face value, but not enough to offset risk considering tariff uncertainties and domestic price reduction concerns.”

“On paper they are more attractive.”

“Yes, but lead times are well into Q3 and Mexico has been very limited in sending material into Houston/Shreveport, (La.).”

“Only in limited situations, less so as prices normalize.”

“Yes on lighter gauge material.”

“Imports are still attractive because of the massive increase for domestic material.”

“Yes, recent plate offers were somewhat attractive on price, but the lead times and non-M&M in the USA make it a dealbreaker for me.”

“Yes, due to landed cost lower than domestic pricing.”

“I think one important factor here is looking at the countries that no longer have a quota in place. We could see more imports coming in (even with the tariff) as a result.”

“Imports are about 20-25% cheaper right now and availability is strong.”

“Domestic only, tariff uncertainty.”

“Not attractive due to our customer requirements for M&M USA steel.”

“No, we have primarily domestic requirements.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Are imports really lacking, and if so, does domestic melt displace it?”

“Russian steel imports into Europe and Asian countries (India).”

“I just don’t think the economy is as good as one might think.”

“Do we want additional steelmaking capacity in the USA?”

“Falling oil prices, infrastructure projects from bipartisan infrastructure bill.”

“Is anyone going to purchase the assets of AHMSA to try and restart something?”

“Evraz sale.”