The European Commission is looking into making current quotas on steel imports stricter as a countermeasure to President Trump’s recently announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the US, according to an article in Reuters.
To say we’ve entered a “Brave New World” since Jan. 20 might be an exaggeration, but we’ve definitely entered a different one.
President Donald Trump said last week that he could place tariffs on auto imports, according to an article in Politico.
The Trump administration has revealed the list of derivative steel products being added to the Section 232 tariff list.
I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).
With a chronic trade deficit, the administration will continue to cite more tariffs as necessary. This is in error, as noted above. Yet the base of President Trump’s support does not see it that way. More tariffs are possible. But the only way to reduce the US trade deficit substantially is to close the gap between savings and investment in the United States.
New duties could give companies like Alcoa and Century Aluminum revenue gains that could boost production
Two US trade associations representing domestic steel producers have come out in favor of President Donald Trump’s announcement on reciprocal tariffs.
A look at how SMU survey respondents are reacting to President Trump's recent actions on tariffs.
It’s been an event-filled month in US ferrous derivatives markets since my last column for SMU. There’s been no shortage of writings and musing about the ongoing steel and aluminum tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. And steel and scrap futures markets have responded accordingly. CME HRC futures prices have risen, and the curve has firmed. The February 2025 HRC futures contract, now in the pricing period, has added $47 per short ton (st) since its contact lows on Jan. 20 to settle at $767/st today.
President Donald J. Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum announcing the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” for trade on Thursday. This would eventually see the levying of reciprocal tariffs on trading partners after a trade analysis for each country is conducted.
Automakers, construction, manufacturers raise concerns
Unions members on both sides of the US-Canada border are speaking out against President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel. They say the tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and subvert decades of economic cooperation. The United Steelworkers (USW) has more than 850,000 total members in North America, with 225,000 in Canada.
While American steelmakers welcome the revival of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, other nations' steel industries are calling for retaliation against President Trump's unilateral action of upping the levies on trading allies and removing all product exemptions.
Josh Spoores, principal analyst at CRU, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 19, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available for free to SMU members. You can register here.
US steel prices set to jump after President Trump levies new tariffs.
Each of the steel product prices tracked by SMU saw significant increases this week. All four of our sheet price indices rose by $30-50 per short ton (st) on average. Plate prices popped $60/st compared to the week prior.
AISI and SMA praise Trump tariffs.
President Donald Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported to the US, according to Bloomberg. Trump said he would make an announcement about the matter on Monday. It was not clear when the tariffs might take effect.
The day-to-day bustle of these announcements should not obscure what they signal for other potential tariff measures in the near term and a revamped trade and economic policy in the long term.
"Personally, I find it very hard to believe that we would be in a trade war with Mexico and Canada for more than a few months at any given time. I don't know how Mexico and Canada could survive that. That's a recession for them. That's a few points off GDP for us - my opinion.”
Targets include coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, and other commodities
As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.
While Canada and Mexico bent the knee to push tariff implementation out another month, the US on Tuesday instituted an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.
Steel and aluminum have been identified as high priorities for trade
Canada fights back, a little As this article was about to be posted, Canada had not backed down to US President Trump’s 25% tariffs coming for Canadian goods at the stroke of midnight. In fact, the Government of Canada had pushed back, saying it would implement 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of US products […]
“It is not by imposing tariffs that problems are resolved, but by talking and dialoguing,” President Claudia Sheinbaum said.
The benefits from higher tariffs are speculative and unproven. The disruptions caused by tariffs and other trade restrictions are better documented and cannot be rationally denied. For the tariffs to be good policy, the Trump argument must therefore be sure that the benefits to the US exceed the cost of these disruptions. Otherwise, we have madness masquerading as policy.
The Trump administration will implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, according to a White House fact sheet and executive orders circulated on Saturday. The administration said that it would tariff “energy resources” from Canada at a lower rate – 10%. The tariffs will go into effect at 12:01 ET on Tuesday, according to an executive order. The White House documents made no mention of exemptions.
The scrap and metallics market has reacted to the tariffs potentially being implemented on our neighbors to the north and south. These could have a serious impact on the market, especially on Canada, unless these products are exempted.