Contributor: Brett Linton

Recent Federal Reserve data paints a positive picture of the US manufacturing sector. Manufacturing indicators remained strong through February and March figures

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.

SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were flat or lower as tariff-related uncertainty continued to drag on the market.

The volume of raw steel produced by US mills remained relatively flat last week, maintaining the rebound seen one week prior, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Previously at the second-highest rate of the year, production continues to hold at one the strongest levels recorded over the last six months.

In this Premium analysis we examine North American oil and natural gas prices, drill rig activity, and crude oil stocks. Trends in energy prices and rig counts serve as leading indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe demand.

Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.

Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.

Steel prices slipped again this week, with all five of SMU’s sheet and plate indices trending lower for the second week in a row.

Water heater and air conditioner/heat pump shipments climbed higher in February, while warm-air furnace shipments eased month over month, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI)

Raw steel mill production is now at the second-highest weekly total recorded so far this year, nearing one of the strongest levels logged over the past six months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Nucor lowered its weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil this week after holding prices steady for the past two weeks.

Oil and gas drilling activity eased for the third consecutive week in both the US and Canada this week, according to Baker Hughes. US rig counts remain just above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity continues its seasonal slowdown.

The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in February receded from January’s peak, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

The volume of steel exported from the US declined in February, reversing January’s surge, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. This comes just two months after export levels had fallen to a two-year low.

SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics this week, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events. We are sharing some of the comments we collected.

This week is the first time all of our indices have moved lower in unison since July 2024.

US steel imports returned to normal levels in February after climbing to a near three-year high in January, according to finalized trade data published by the US Commerce Department. March license data suggests imports have remained within this normal range.

Domestic steel mill production was estimated at 1,656,000 short tons (st) for the week ending April 5 (Figure 1), down 41,000 tons or 2.4% from the previous week.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices experienced multi-point declines this week, though both remain positive and continue to reflect optimism among steel buyers for their companies' ability to be successful.

The number of active oil and gas drill rigs declined this week in both the US and Canada, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes. US rig counts remain just above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity continues its seasonal slowdown.

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that sheet lead times continue to gradually decline from recent highs. Meanwhile, plate lead times increased to levels last seen one year ago.

Four out of every five steel buyers who responded to our latest market survey say domestic mills are unwilling to negotiate on new order spot pricing. Mills have shown little flexibility on pricing for nearly two months.

Sheet and plate prices were mixed on Tuesday as the market took a wait-and-see approach to the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through March 31.

Raw steel mill output from US mills rebounded last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Production is now at the highest weekly rate recorded so far this year.

The Chicago Business Barometer increased for the third-consecutive month in March. Despite this, it still reflects contracting business conditions, as it has since December 2023.

US rig counts remain slightly above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity is slowing following a seasonal peak.

A personal perspective on Galvalume prices from SMU analyst Brett Linton.

This week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, including market prices, demand, tariff policies, inventories, imports, and emerging market events.

SMU's steel price indices moved in differing directions this week but remained largely stable as cautious buyers await clarity on pending steel tariffs and trade cases.