Contributor: Brett Linton

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported longer lead times this week on all of the sheet and plate products SMU tracks.

The majority of the steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that domestic mills are not open to negotiating prices on new orders this week.

In the final week of February, SMU polled steel and scrap executives to gather their insights on the current state of the scrap market as well as future projections.

Steel prices climbed across the board this week, with every steel product tracked by SMU rising to multi-month highs.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of key SMU steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through February 28th.

Raw steel mill production declined last week to one of the lowest levels seen this year, according to recent figures released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

US rig counts remain just above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity is within earshot of a seven-year high.

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to an eight-month high in February. Despite the recovery, the measure continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions, as it has for over a year.

Global crude steel output rose 5% from December to January but still lagged last year.

Prices for six of the seven steelmaking raw materials SMU tracks are increased from January to February, according to our latest analysis.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, inventories, imports and evolving market events.

Market participants might disagree over how high flat-rolled steel price might go and for how long they might remain elevated. But there is near total agreement on one thing: Prices are up sharply again this week. The gains come on the heels of waves of mill price increases (for sheet and for plate), expectations that scrap prices will rise again in March, and the threat of tariffs looming over the market.

US steel mills produced an estimated 1,659,000 short tons (st) of raw steel last week, according to data recently released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Buyers are optimistic for a strong scrap market in March, driven by limited scrap inflows from severe weather disruptions and increasing mill demand.

US steel mills produced an estimated 1,670,000 short tons (st) of raw steel last week, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.

Nucor has increased its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil for a fourth consecutive week.

In this Premium analysis we examine North American oil and natural gas prices, drill rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts serve as leading indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe demand.

Shipments of heating and cooling equipment in the US fell to an 11-month low in December, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

Iron ore shipments on the Great Lakes saw a sharp decline in January 2025, according to the Lake Carriers’ Association (LCA).

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rose to a record high in January, according to the latest data released by Dodge Construction Network.

Each of the steel product prices tracked by SMU saw significant increases this week. All four of our sheet price indices rose by $30-50 per short ton (st) on average. Plate prices popped $60/st compared to the week prior.

Apparent US steel supply rebounded in December, but 2024 was still the lowest level for supply since 2020.

December 2024 marks the fourth month in a row that steel exports have declined, now at the lowest monthly rate recorded since December 2022.

US mills produced an estimated 1,675,000 short tons (st) of raw steel last week, the highest weekly rate recorded since mid-December according to data recently released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Following the one-year low recorded in November, steel imports rose by 3% in December to 2.14 million short tons (st) according to final US Commerce Department data. January could be the highest month for steel imports witnessed in nearly three years.

US rig counts remain marginally above multi-year lows. The drop in Canadian activity comes just one week after reaching a near seven-year high.

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.

While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.

Steel mill negotiation rates have declined in each of our last two surveys; this week’s rate is the lowest recorded since March 2024.