Steel market chatter this week

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How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“There is so much uncertainty at this moment that all bets are off.”

“One big cup of black coffee… If tariffs hold, we will see an initial decline of imports, but they will return and spot prices might recover. If just a handful of regions find an exemption or significant reduction, then spot prices do what they should do: go down.”

“I thought we’d get to $1,000/ton, but I was wrong. This thing has peaked and heading into the summer it could get UGLY.”

“If the tariff situation sticks, then stable to up. If tariff relief, then stable soft.”

“Bumpy next 60 days, very skewed high/low pricing driven by product type and shallow demand.”

“Pricing will moderate over the next few months to better align with market forces.”

“Expect stabilization as tariff negotiations ensue.”

“Sideways, they will remain high pending a resolution to the tariffs.”

“Stay flat, everyone has loaded up and there will not be much demand over the next few months as there was previously.”

“Prices are close to a peak. Stellantis is closing production lines, others to follow.”

“Steady to slightly down. The panic buying is over and demand is not strong enough to support more increases.”

“Expect prices to come off over the next three months, not expecting a large drop but less than $100/ton based on demand softening.”

“Down, slowing economy.”

“I feel prices will trend lower due to tariffs pushing inflation up on most products. This will reduce demand because people will be buying less.”

“Down, the economy is not that good right now.”

“I’m not seeing a drop in prices yet, but due to the economic uncertainty of the tariffs, I expect the economy to slow and steel prices to drop.”

“Reductions – not enough end user demand to support the recent increases.”

“Flat to up on discrete plate for several obvious reasons.”

“Slightly higher and then flat, no demand.”

“Slightly higher as availability becomes constricted.”

“Increasing. Demand is increasing and the supply of domestic steel continues to recede in the face of increasing costs of foreign steel.”

“Prices will continue to rise in part due to the tariffs.”

Is demand improving, declining, or stable?

“For now demand is stable as customers are only placing orders for short term delivery.”

“Mixed bag, HRC seems to be stable to softening, while plate seems stable to firm.”

“Stable, no one is panic buying.”

“I’m seeing demand as stable even picking up from some very slow points in Q1.”

“Demand is okay at best. Folks are getting spooked looking at the general markets (and their portfolios).”

“Demand is solid in the current and next month, future commitments on order have slowed.”

“Stable.” x9

“Stable but it should be moving up soon due to seasonality of our products.”

“Our demand is steady, but increasing because of expanding into other markets.”

“Plate demand is stable to improving as spring rolls out and projects are ramping up.”

“Demand for plate products is up. Coil not so much.”

“Improving, seasonal construction.”

“Improving, more jobs are being released.”

“Declining, fear creates instability and pervasive consuming inaction.”

“Declining on uncertainty.”

“Slowing due to the tariff issue.”

“Declining, hands are in pockets waiting to see what happens with tariffs.”

“Declining, slowing economy.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Buyers were divided on this question, as 41% said they were unsure whether the tariffs policies would benefit their business, 38% felt they were not helping, and the remaining 21% responded that the tariffs were having a positive impact. Comments included:

“I see no signs of the tariffs helping our business, but I don’t see nearly the catastrophe in our business as the stock exchanges are seeing.”

“The market understands how to operate in a steel tariff environment but, not in this new uncertain climate of tariffs on everything.  The steel marketplace is paralyzed.”

“Customers are hesitant and holding off investments in new projects with recession now looming and interest rates not coming down.”

“As a manufacturer, we are seeing increases even when tariffs do not affect the product.”

“Everything is uncertain.”

“Current uncertainty is hurting our business as nobody ever likes uncertainty.”

“It all depends on demand. On the surface they should help, but if demand suffers, then not so much.”

“Idiocracy movie: it’s like when he put water on the crops instead of brawndo and everyone was freaking out… Thats what’s happening right now.”

“At first definitely helping, but not so sure now.”

“At this point I think the ‘noise’ has hurt market confidence and companies’ willingness to spend.”

“Tariffs have caused some panic buying.”

“Currently we are challenged with the impact as prices and lead times shot up as domestic mills seized their opportunity.  We are hopeful that the tariff policies will be a good thing for our business.”

“Manufacturing space is seeing steel increases.”

“Helping, we are a 100% domestic M&M house.”

“Too soon to determine.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is probably moving about the same, but we purposefully are keeping less stock on hand.”

“About the same, started slower but last month sales surged to level it out.”

“No change, we tend not to try to guess the market.”

“Q1 was up a bit, April is very slow due to no confidence in government policies.”

“About the same, business was pretty solid in this time frame last year.”

‘Around the same.”

“Plate stock is moving out at a moderate rate.”

“Slower because our largest jobs are completing.”

“Slower as companies are reducing their inventory levels.”

“Slower due to tariffs.”

“Slower than this time last year, but it is trending how the second half of 2024 went.”

“I’m seeing inventory moving slower this year vs. last. My sales are down vs. last year and some of our facilities could use work.”

“Only faster because folks bought ahead to beat tariff induced increases.”

“Faster, low inventories throughout the supply chain.”

“Slightly increasing.”

“Spot tons faster, lower volume.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Imports in general are attractive but nothing worth committing to considering the market volatility.”

“If tariffs stay at 25% then yes. The Euro makes importing from Europe less favorable now.”

“Yes, but delivery time is too risky.”

“Imports are the go-to. (Certain domestic mills) are greedy and inconsiderate of manufacturers being able to pass on said increase. Slower monthly increases would have gone further while not creating animosity toward them.”

“All the sudden import pricing (even with the tariffs) are looking good again. Their lead times are risky though.”

“Historically, imports are more attractive.”

“Attractive due to better pricing into Canada than US.”

“Import offers are easily 15% lower than domestic, even with tariffs.”

“Some imports are more attractive. We are a Canadian producer, import mills are looking to diversify away from the US due to tariffs.”

“Yes, plate offers trickle in and we review them all. Nothing worth jumping on for now.”

“Imports from a pricing standpoint are more attractive, but lead times are extended and tariffs remain a concern.”

“Depends on the material, but overall nothing has changed regarding imports.”

“Lead times from imports still a deterrent.”

“Less attractive, tariff threats.”

“Not attractive due to customer requirements of domestic steel.”

“Plate imports are not attractive to us at this moment in time for all the obvious reasons.”

“No, cannot tell for certain what prices will be.”

“Not really.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“What is the true underlying demand picture for the United States steel market.”

“Does the domestic mill (over?) capacity still offer plenty of material even if there’s little or no foreign steel coming in?”

“The fear of the impact of inflation on the consumers purchasing habits, basically cutting back on spending creating the potential for a recession.”

“Quotas from South Korea and Brazil. Levels in check for the past few years. Both countries will absorb tariffs to ship more products into the US.”

“Domestic mills putting the squeeze on manufacturers. Just today, the mill reinforced their recent increase by saying they speculate offshore offerings are reduced forcing us to accept.”

“After the armor plate ‘leak’ not much has come out about Evraz. Also, with so much market turmoil, I think we could see more regional SSC players look for an exit (via M&A).”

“The impact on the cost and availability of freight service. Reduced imports/exports = reduced volume at ports, reduced demand on freight carriers. Then what? Will it affect fuel prices? Will oil producers then cut production? It goes on and on.”

“How there are Americans complaining about Trump saying he wants to not make trade even, he just wants to cut in half how much we are getting screwed. So, people are mad that he is trying to make trade just halfway between now and even. The propaganda machine is amazing.”

“Now that the tariffs are announced, how will demand actually change, what industries related to steel benefit the most.”

“The economy is not good.”

“Scrap market demand.”