Steel market chatter this week

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How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I expect continued increases. There is too much uncertainty with tariffs, allowing mills to continue these increases.”

“Flat or up, the market will react to trade cases and more tariffs, plus domestic is still cheaper than imports.”

“I expect prices to increase a bit more over the next few months.”

“Prices will rise, but it’s hard to know for how long and how much exactly due to uncertainty of tariffs and true demand.”

“Upward, weak domestic production and slowing imports should create supply constraints.”

“Plate will go up due to tariff uncertainty, long domestic lead times, large OEM and pipeline projects, infrastructure projects, and higher import prices.”

“Trending upward due to the side effect of tariffs.”

“Flat to slightly up. Most of the increases have already taken place, hesitation from customers.”

“I expect we are close to a peak in the near term, a lot of steel on order. There may be some push for higher prices, but minimal and more downside risk with buying slowing.”

“HRC will plateau, demand isn’t there. Plate may continue for some time, demand is there.”

“I don’t think we’ve peaked yet, but the top is coming far sooner than I anticipated. Over the next few months, this will get ugly (again).”

“I feel prices will level off and begin dropping, due to lead times shrinking as companies begin receiving materials that were bought farther out (buying spurred on by tariffs).”

“I expect prices to correct, potentially starting as soon as the April scrap trade.”

“Flatten out and possibly start to decline if the tariffs are not enforced.  There still isn’t great demand in the economy.”

“Flat, people bought ahead and prices are moving up too fast.”

“Flat, potentially a bit down. Demand is not there, and even with tariffs, imports still make sense.”

“Flat and then decline. No real basis for current price, only fear.”

“Lower, tariff issues will be resolved.”

“Down, the economy is slowing down.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Improving on price increases and weather-related business.”

“Improving on plate products.”

“Demand is improving, but headed towards stable and eventually down as contract prices reset at higher levels.”

“We’ve actually seen a nice bump in demand (on the OEM side of our business), but most folks we talk to are still slow.”

“Beginning to improve due to seasonality of our customers.”

“Plate demand is stable to improving as spring rolls out. It has been a very harsh and long winter.”

“Stable due to buyers having bought up front for next quarter demand.”

“Same, slightly improving, pent-up demand is still building.”

“Typical for this time of year overall. Some end use industries are up, some are soft, but overall normal for seasonality.”

“Stable, we have not seen much market growth.”

“Mostly stable with a small decline.”

“Demand has declined from last year, but busier than the extremely quiet environment of several weeks ago.”

“Demand is declining as customers are unsure about their future requirements and are minimizing inventories.”

“Declining due to uncertainty on tariffs and demand.”

“Declining, the economy is slowing down.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Buyers had a split opinion on this question, with 37% saying the policies are not helping their business, 37% saying they are helping, and 27% unsure of the impact. Comments included:

“They aren’t helping us now due to how they caused flat-rolled steel prices to surge and lead times push out.  We are hopeful the tariff policies will help us in the future.”

“The panic and unease the tariffs have caused isn’t good for anyone.”

“They are creating extra costs that we are paying for and so are our customers. The mill is not paying, we are.”

“Demand is being reduced, and cost is increasing due to tariffs.”

“Helping bring up price and scaring customers into looking into new supply chains, but hurting end users.”

“We export to the US from Canada, order book beyond April 2 is very light.”

“We feel the effects both ways, as we do purchase considerable steel from Canada and Europe.”

“Short-term challenges with huge long-term benefits.”

“Helping to increase prices, but too early to tell.”

“Too soon to actually know if it’s impacting our situation.”

“The threat of President Trump’s tariffs boosted sales in November, but since have slowed buying due to pulled in demand.”

“Price increases are beneficial for every service center in the near term.  Long term is very much TBD.”

“Causing panic buying.”

“May help with increased margin dollars.”

“Helping to increase prices, but too early to tell.”

“Yes, inventory values are up.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, but this time last year was when demand began to slide. I believe that the comparatives will be positive going forward.”

“Slower. Last year we started strong, then sales began tapering off from what we had budgeted. This year is starting out with the same trend.”

“Slower, fewer big jobs.”

“Slower due to weak demand.”

“Inventory is moving slower, but starting to move now.”

“Less backlog, but pretty much the same as last year.”

“About the same.”

“Inventory is moving about the same, but we’re purposefully stocking less and less.”

“Faster with how prices and tariffs have impacted to the market.”

“Faster, inventories (semi-finished, WIP and finished) are all being held at low levels.”

“Plate inventories are moving at a nice clip.”

“We are moving inventory fast as we have improved our go to market strategy.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Yes, due to high inventory levels at offshore mills, allowing for more products to be shipped to other countries and move around US tariffs.”

“Imports look fine price-wise, but the lead times are scary. Obviously the unknowns with regards to tariffs is a big question mark too.”

“Yes they are. The only caveat is that domestic prices might decline before your imported material arrives.”

“Price-wise yes, timeframe-wise no.”

“Imports pose a risk due to tariffs. Price-wise they are competitive, but have other risks like tariffs or vessel charges.”

“We use quite a bit of light gauge steel, which still makes imports more attractive, .015” and above not as much.”

“More attractive than 30 days ago, but the spread is not wide enough for us to shift back to foreign.”

“As domestic prices go up, imports are more competitive.”

“After tariffs are applied, pricing is unattractive. The spread is simply too tight when comparing on an all-in, landed basis.”

“It’s got to be scary to buy imports when the president can increase tariffs so quickly and easily.”

“There have been no recent plate offers that are grabbing our attention.”

“No, Taiwan galvanized imports are only $2-$3/cwt lower than recent spot into port of Houston. Galvalume is more attractive, but the window to buy is likely closing quickly.”

“No, we buy American.”

“Less attractive. Too much desire/requirements for M&M steel.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Domestic production remains low. In past markets, domestics kick up output when pricing surges. US mills are remaining disciplined.”

“Mill overcapacity can make up for the upward pressure on pricing that tariffs can cause.”

“Trade cases will crush imports from some countries. The market seems to think Trump is going to back down on 232 and on tariffs from Mexico and Canada, but I don’t see that happening.”

“The Evraz armor plate scandal was wild. I wonder how that relates to the ongoing sale discussions. ‘Interesting’ timing for a leak…”

“Not that this isn’t being talked about, but a big concern I have is overall demand and how much of a contraction we will see with mill lead times, potentially causing steel prices to crash as fast as they shot up.”

“The general feeling of uncertainty and the possibility of an economic recession.”

“The majority of end users and OEMs can afford to pay $100/cwt HRC and $115/cwt HDG base prices and still make money. … Those without surcharges on their products have been raising their prices since the pandemic.”

“How big of a deal it is to replace Canadian imports into the US.”

“The amount of influence that Cleveland-Cliffs has on trade policy.”

“Tariff surcharges/increase letters from OEMs for heavy equipment, trucks, etc. on order.”

“The market is undervaluing the current administration’s focus on helping US steel mills.”

“Turkey’s pricing steel model for Europe sale and possible Canadian sales and their impact on the market.”

“AHMSA auction and potential suitors. It’s been too quiet.”

“Will the Nippon-USS deal close or not?”