Steel market chatter this week

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How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“We expect prices to continue to trend upward through at least the first half of the year. This would somewhat mirror the 2018 tariff cycle.”

“We see the market trending up, albeit at a slower pace. Inputs, tariffs, and contagion to buy ahead will keep prices elevated in the short-term.”

“Continued increases. Scrap prices are up, planned and unplanned outages at plate facilities, tariff concerns, no exemptions, and increased domestic demand.”

“Increase as long as the tariffs stay in place.”

“We expect prices to continue to increase in March and settle in April. May is a wild card as demand does not seem to be strong at all.”

“More of what we are seeing now, the domestics will raise prices until we quit buying.”

“Discrete plate prices are expected to rise for May production, rumors of substantial increases.”

“Up with lead times going out. Plate is seeing higher demand right now than coil.”

“Prices will trend higher due to tariffs and trade wars until people stop spending and we go into a recession or war.”

“We are expecting pricing to keep going up for a bit longer. I just don’t feel ‘true demand’ is enough to keep it going much past $1,000/ton though.”

“Up for another month or two, then trending down.”

“I feel the lack of solid demand is going to fizzle the mill increases and we will see prices dropping within the next month. As usual, mills got overly greedy and took whatever they could get with no sense of what is best for the market.”

“Prices will slightly trend upward and then begin to level off and drop toward summer. There is not enough demand to keep costs elevated.”

“I expect hot rolled prices to increase slightly in the short run, but demand just isn’t strong enough to support much more of an increase in pricing.”

“I expect them to peak in April or May, then start to erode when scrap corrects.”

“Steady followed by a slight downward trend. Demand is not the reason for the pricing increase and that cannot be sustained.”

“The market will catch its breath and begin to moderate downward over the next three months.”

“Seems near-term mills will sustain above $900 HRC, but by June, imports are being offered significantly less than domestic prices, so prices have to come off.”

“Bubble pop, influx of imports that are more competitive than domestics even after absorbing 25% tariffs.”

“Lower, slower demand.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand seems stable but not too much growth. Still appears to be a lot of uncertainty with tariffs and the economy.”

“Stable at this point, with lots of tariff uncertainty.”

“Demand is stable, but historically low for Q1 and Q2. With the exception of a few companies buying ahead, demand is low.”

“Stable but tariffs may drop construction and economic confidence.”

“We believe that the real underlying demand is stable soft.”

“Demand is weak now. Too much uncertainty due to our new government and their protectionist ways.”

“Demand is down due to many customers already having locked in larger than usual quantities to beat the price increases.”

“Some signs of improvement but that might be due to the tariffs and the continued price increases.”

“Demand is improving, but we are concerned that it is just being pulled forward.”

“Demand has improved in the near-term, but some of that is being driven by restocking and panic, we are not seeing major demand improvements year-over-year.”

“Plate demand is stable to improving.”

“Slightly improving.”

“Demand is finally (!) improving for us. We finally saw some big CapEx-type orders come through in the past two weeks. Hoping that becomes the trend and not an outlier.”

“Increasing with price increases being announced.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Very similar shipment pace to last year. Customers are buying ahead, but not consuming at an elevated rate.”

“Similar to last year.”

“Slightly faster or the same.”

“Inventory is moving fast now, because of how quickly prices have increased.”

“Inventory is moving faster, but only because we are carrying less.”

“Only faster because folks are rushing to buy ahead of increases.”

“Faster as demand has been pushed up to offset the tariff impacts.”

“Faster – inventory levels are low for plates throughout the supply chain.”

“Faster, if you price it competitively, it moves.”

“Slower, demand is currently less than a year ago.”

“I’m seeing demand fairly significantly down from last year at this time because many fabricators have bought all they needed a month or so ago.”

“Slower with too much uncertainty both with steel pricing and in general the economy.”

“Inventory is moving slower due to our decreased lead time, slower order book.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Yes, due to tariff and cost increases at domestic mill levels.”

“It seems that we’re getting closer to the point that imports may be attractive, but tough to judge because the tariff situation is unclear.”

“As domestic prices increase, the attractiveness of imports rises.”

“Imports are more attractive on lighter gauge steel we use.”

“Imports are back to being attractive again, even with the 25% tariff. Lead time is a bit concerning though offshore.”

“Right now import offerings are $17/cwt ($340/ton) lower than domestic replacement, even after absorbing 25% tariffs.”

“Imports, although early, are significantly advantaged by over $100/ton in some early offers. But lead time is June, not many offers just yet.”

“We are getting several import offers every week and are passing for now. Tariffs uncertainty is the main concern.”

“Imports are becoming more attractive, as you can sell futures to cover risk.”

“Too much red tape at the moment to decide.”

“Price is attractive, lead time is not.”

“Not yet. Price spread is not large enough to combat the lead times and chance for US correction before arrival.”

“Nothing is attractive now. Imports a huge trade risk.”

“Not attractive due to customer requirements for domestic.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“If the mills are busy, why is the mill capacity rate so low?”

“Mill order books filling primarily from hedge buys rather than being driven by end user demand.”

“If you have customers in Canada, they’re canceling orders.”

“Lack of strong demand.”

“How inflation will impact the steel markets.”

“How much real ‘re-shoring’ is going to take place and the impact of that on all markets.”

“Anti-dumping ruling April 3rd.”

“Nice update on the AHMSA situation over the weekend. I guess in a similar vein, should we hear something about Evraz NA soon?”

“No one seems to be talking about Nippon Steel as much as it was at the end of 2024.”

“Turkey scrap pricing level and lower selling cost than rest of Europe and North America.”

“The weakened demand for electrical steel compared to OEM forecasts just two years ago.”

“Outages are more in play than people understand.”

“Availability and pricing levels for slabs for plate rerollers.”

“The cycle continues, mills run up pricing way too high to then see it decline too far.”