Steel exports rebound in January

As shown in Figure 1, exports usually spike at the beginning of each year, as December tends to have the lowest export volume of any month.

The majority of US steel exports go to USMCA trading partners. Just over half of all January exports were shipped to Mexico (51%), while 44% went to Canada. Other notable destinations included the Dominican Republic, Brazil, China, Chile, India, the United Kingdom, and the Bahamas, each receiving 1% or less of total January exports.

For more detailed export data by product and country, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.

Export trends

Looking at steel exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can better highlight trends by smoothing out the variations seen month to month (Figure 2, left). After reaching a five-year high of 887,000 st in July 2023, 3MMA export volumes declined through the second half of 2023, partially recovered through mid-2024, and then followed typical seasonal year-end slowdowns. The 3MMA increased from December to January to 685,000 st but is lower than the same measure one year prior (704,000 st).

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to further showcase long-term trends (Figure 2, right). On this basis, steel exports have declined since early 2024 but still remain relatively high compared to 2019-2022 rates. The 12MMA inched up in January to 771,000 st. Compare this to the five-and-a-half-year high 12MMA we saw in February 2024 of 805,000 st.

Exports by product

Flat-rolled exports increased in January for most of the sheet and plate products we track, with many products rebounding from multi-month lows. Notable movements from December to January include:

• Exports of other metallic-coated products jumped 55%, recovering from a four-and-a-half-year low.
• Cold-rolled sheet exports rebounded 52% from December’s one-year low.
• Exports of galvanized sheet rose 40% to a five-month high, previously at a two-year low.
• Cut-to-length plate exports increased 35% to a 17-month high, recovering from a one-year low.
• Hot-rolled coil exports increased 17% to a three-month high.
• Exports of coiled plate declined 19% from December’s 18-month high.

Figure 3 shows a history of exports by product on a 3MMA basis.

Compared to a year earlier, January exports by product were mixed, with three products rising and three declining. Significant year-on-year (y/y) increases were witnessed in exports of cold-rolled coil (+24%), hot-rolled coil (+12%), and cut-to-length plate (+12%).

January export volumes for all six products we monitor were lower than their respective 3MMAs and 12MMAs, except plates in coils.

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.