Features
Apparent steel supply shrinks to 45-month low in November
Written by Brett Linton
January 13, 2025
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market fell to a multi-month low in November, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’, we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.
Total apparent supply for November was 7.65 million short tons (st), a 6% decline from the prior month. This marks the smallest monthly supply rate recorded since February 2021.
Prior to November, monthly supply had consistently remained within the 8-9 million st range for over two years. Recall that earlier in 2024, supply reached a 21-month high in May (8.90 million st).
Trends
To smooth out monthly fluctuations and better highlight trends, monthly supply levels can be recalculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA), as shown in Figure 2.
Supply on a 3MMA basis has trended lower since the late 2021 peak of 9.87 million st. The November 3MMA is down to a near-four-year low of 7.93 million st. One year prior it was 8.15 million st. Two years ago it was 8.25 million st.
Figure 3 shows the individual inputs for apparent supply and clearly shows what factors are contributing to the reduced volumes seen through November. Domestic mill shipments have declined each month since August, falling 590,000 st or 8.1% in three months’ time. While changes in finished imports and total exports have a less substantial impact on supply, both have also trended lower across the second half of 2024.
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features
AISI: Raw steel output edges higher, nears six-month high
Raw steel mill production is now at the second-highest weekly total recorded so far this year, nearing one of the strongest levels logged over the past six months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
Final Thoughts
What happens when ChatGPT meets SMU's Market Chatter? No, this is not an idea for the latest Hollywood blockbuster. Then again, with what Hollywood is putting out these days, Chatter Meets Chat might just turn out to be a hit. Rather, it’s that old idea of putting theory into practice. Recently, I conducted an interview with Doug Schrock, managing principal of AI at public accounting and consulting firm Crowe. He gave some tips on how to implement AI into your business.
Price on trade: A lot happened last week – and it wasn’t all about tariffs
Should foreign investment be allowed to reshape the American steel Industry? Not to be lost in the recent on-again-off-again tariff frenzy, Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of U.S. Steel has also found itself in President Trump’s crosshairs when it comes to trade and industrial policy. Nippon Steel initially announced its nearly $15-billion bid for U.S. Steel […]
SMU Week in Review: April 7 – 11
The constant flow of information we all receive can be a bit overwhelming, but SMU is here to help with a weekly snapshot.
Rig counts decline again in US and Canada
Oil and gas drilling activity eased for the third consecutive week in both the US and Canada this week, according to Baker Hughes. US rig counts remain just above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity continues its seasonal slowdown.