Final Thoughts
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Final thoughts
Written by Ethan Bernard
July 20, 2024
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot the worth up to five thousand words, at least.
In that spirit, we’ve provided some snapshots from our market survey that closed on July 17, along with some comments from market participants.
We’ve included a few near-term outlooks, and a bit of chatter to help you keep your finger on the pulse of the market. While they might not tell you where the market is going, they can confirm intuitions, or even give you insights that you hadn’t thought of before.
We may be in the summer doldrums, but between what’s happening in the industry and in the world, there’s never a dull moment.
So, in both images and comments, from the near-term prices on HRC and scrap, to lead times and overall demand, here is what people are saying.
Want to share your thoughts as well? Contact info@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.
Without further ado, we’ll let the survey speak for itself. (Remember, full survey results are available to Premium subscribers.)
Where do you think HRC prices will be in two months?
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/07/Fancy-Two-Months-HRC-1024x581.png)
“The mills have to be at or below their breakeven.”
“Demand softness due to the election.”
“Mills trying to spark interest think lowering the price is the way.”
“We are thinking prices might dip slightly below $600/ton but then gradually bump up a bit. We don’t expect a crazy spike.”
“It will be a relatively slow upward trend until some degree of inventory rebuilding starts. It won’t be a significant movement but could increase by $100-200/ton.”
“Not done falling. Little pressure on raw material or from demand until after the election.”
“I feel we will hit a bottom within a month, and then pricing will move back up to about where we are at now.”
“I expect prices to start increasing by month’s end.”
“I see no reason for the price to go up.”
Prime scrap prices in August will be:
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/07/Prime-Scrap-Fancy-1024x579.png)
“Demand softness due to the election.”
“Exports down and summer doldrums.”
“A total guess here, but most big players we talk to aren’t super bullish for August.”
“Seemed to go a little against the grain in July. Indicates more strength than previously estimated.”
“Iron ore down, steel down, lower Chinese demand.”
“Not large moves up, but coming up off bottom.”
Recall that SMU’s July scrap pricing stands at:
- Busheling at $370-380/gross ton (gt), averaging $375, down $5 from June.
- Shredded at $370-385/gt, averaging $377.50, up $2.50 from June.
- HMS at $300-330/gt, averaging $310, up $5 from June.
Two months from now, will lead times be extending, flat, or contracting?
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/07/Lead-times-fancy-1024x578.png)
“Unless capacity comes offline somewhere (anywhere?), I don’t expect any sort of real stretching out of lead times.”
“Slightly at first and then gaining some momentum.”
“Extended slightly.”
“September they extend slightly on plate – discrete plate.”
“I think they will extend over the next month but then flatten.”
“I don’t think extending lead times will force people to buy at this point.”
How is demand for your products?
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/07/Fnacy-Demand-1024x577.png)
“We are not seeing much new demand these days.”
“Market is slow.”
“Down from better times earlier this year but better than the very slow month of June.”
“Orders have increased over the past few weeks of construction-related products.”
“Usage hasn’t changed, only price.”
Steel Summit 2024
If you thought graphs and commentary gave you a leg up, imagine how much you could glean from attending North America’s preeminent flat-rolled steel event? Of course we’re talking about SMU’s Steel Summit 2024.
From amazing panels with industry experts, to networking opportunities with a who’s who of the steel world, if you haven’t reserved a spot yet, time is counting down. Nearly 1,100 people have registered to attend so far, and more are signing up every day. We look forward to seeing you at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta on Aug. 26-28!
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/02/SMU_EB_headshot.png.jpg-150x150.png)
Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in Final Thoughts
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Final thoughts
Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/gears.png)
Final thoughts
Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/SMU-Steel-Summit.png)
Final thoughts
I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/SMU-Steel-Summit.png)
Final thoughts
Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/SMU-Steel-Summit.png)
Final thoughts
The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.