Tag: final thoughts

A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.

What happens when ChatGPT meets SMU's Market Chatter? No, this is not an idea for the latest Hollywood blockbuster. Then again, with what Hollywood is putting out these days, Chatter Meets Chat might just turn out to be a hit. Rather, it’s that old idea of putting theory into practice. Recently, I conducted an interview with Doug Schrock, managing principal of AI at public accounting and consulting firm Crowe. He gave some tips on how to implement AI into your business.

The Trump tariff drama continues.

Let’s just say the impact of the latest tariffs on the domestic steel market is uncertain at best.

Respondents to the SMU Survey weigh in on the steel landscape.

Who could’ve guessed that the first stage to follow liberation would be confusion. Well, when things get this liberated this fast, perhaps it’s to be expected. From the 30,000-foot view, “Liberation Day” didn’t have a significant impact on steel tariff-wise. That is, the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs stand alone from the reciprocal tariffs […]

The market breathlessly awaits the arrival of President Trump's "Liberation Day."

I’m not sure what I can write today that won’t be old news after April 2. The Trump administration has dubbed Wednesday “Liberation Day.” Since it’s mostly about tariffs, let’s just call it “Tariff Day.” Or maybe we should call it “Tariff Week” – since tariffs typically dominate the news cycle in the first week […]

A personal perspective on Galvalume prices from SMU analyst Brett Linton.

After a March frenzy, are prices nearing a peak in April? Some of you have suggested that they are. Others think it's too early to make any such call.

Have we hit a bit of a lull when it comes to the recent price bump? Mills certainly capitalized on the threat of tariffs and the unknown, with much that still could unfold.

From the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 to George W. Bush's temporary 30% tariff, SMU takes a look at steel tariffs past.

Do recent actions by the EPA on deregulation signal a new course for the agency, and how could it affect steel?

Is a fissure opening up between manufacturers and the mills on President Trump's tariffs?

President Trump’s tariffs are aimed in large part at bringing manufacturing back to the United States. In theory, it’s simple enough: Want to avoid a big tariff? Make it in the US!

With the tariff craziness showing no signs of abating, we take you on a tour of the current situation.

One thing we've learned from our survey here at SMU: When prices are rising, people have a lot to say. You can be assured that with our most recent survey, the comments were coming in fast and furious.

Before we get whipsawed by the current moment, it’s important to reflect on optimism. Whatever happens, consumers are going to need steel.

Remember infrastructure week in Trump 1.0? It became a running joke. Because it was almost always derailed by whatever the scandal of the day was. In Trump 2.0, we've got tariff week. And unlike infrastructure week, tariff week is no joke.

Input costs have been driven higher by tighter supplies and restricted flows after a tough winter. Could rising demand from mills fuel an extended rally into Q2? Shredder feed has been strained as shredders try to fill backlogs. And shredded prices could jump by $50 per gross ton (gt) this month, some suggest. It's a similar story with prime grades. That's because industrial generation is down, and hot-rolled coil production is picking up.

That’s not to say Section 232 shouldn’t be tightened up. Or that certain trade practices – even among our traditional allies – weren’t problematic. But when it comes to the reboot of Section 232, I do wonder whether there will be some unintended consequences.

As February comes to a close this week, the scrap markets are poised for another – and perhaps more extreme – move upward in March. March is usually a month when scrap prices relent as winter’s impediments subside. That’s not the case this year. And this time, the driver of prices will be increased demand from mills along with restricted flows over the last two months.

To say we’ve entered a “Brave New World” since Jan. 20 might be an exaggeration, but we’ve definitely entered a different one.

I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).

A look at how SMU survey respondents are reacting to President Trump's recent actions on tariffs.

A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.

An exciting first look at the results from SMU's first scrap survey.

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference. He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped […]

The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!