Tag: final thoughts

What might be in store for the ferrous scrap market this summer?

The May scrap market in the US seems to be just finishing up its settle as of the writing of this article. Luckily, we have our latest ferrous scrap market survey to give us an insight before we release our prices article next week.

The current rally in sheet prices has lasted more than seven months, something without recent precedent. Unless your definition of recent includes the snapback in demand following the pandemic.

AISI, SMA, and the Canadian Steel Producers Association will each publish a monthly column in the lead-up to the USMCA periodic review.

I haven’t done a deep dive into our sentiment data for a little while. And it’s timely to do so now. Why? Because we’re seeing what I’ll call the inverted yield curve of steel buyers’ sentiment.

I attended the SAFE Summit in Washington, D.C., earlier this week. It was an out-of-this world event – and I mean that quite literally. There were serious discussions around building data centers in space.

Imports of various iron and steelmaking raw materials are eligible. These include pig iron, direct-reduced iron (DRI)/hot-briquetted iron (HBI), iron ore pellets, and ferroalloys, to name a few.

The countdown continues. 123. That’s how many days before Steel Summit 2026 kicks off on Aug. 24 in Atlanta. And it looks like there will be no shortage of things to talk about.

In a Final Thoughts las week, I asked “Got Steel?” And if you’re looking for spot tons in June, the answer still isn’t obvious.

The flat-rolled steel market looks poised for continued gains despite widespread concerns about higher freight costs stemming from the Iran War, according to SMU's latest steel market survey.

Service centers held only 2.24 months of supply (49.3 days of supply) of sheet products in March, according to our latest figures. If you check our archives, you’ll see that's the lowest sheet inventories we’ve seen since June 2021 – which was hardly a bad year for steel.

We look at market participant comments from this month's SMU Ferrous Scrap Survey.

Remember the “Got Milk?” advertising campaign of the 1990s. Maybe we should start a “Got Steel?” campaign. Or maybe “Got Spot Tons?” would be more accurate, if less catchy.

The world definitely seems like a more dangerous place these days. And, of course, when national security is invoked, the steel industry always plays a key role.

More people expect hot-rolled (HR) coil prices to continue to climb. And most respondents to our last survey predict that prices will hit or even breach the $1,100 per short ton (st) threshold.

If I had to sum it up, I’d say “pain at the pump” is back. AAA says gasoline now averages more than $4 per gallon nationally ($4.08 to be precise) for the first time in for years. Meanwhile, diesel prices average $5.40 per gallon, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s up $1.81 per gallon from a year ago.

What impact could the war in Iran have on the steel raw materials supply chain and prices?

Could we see prices continue to inch higher, plateau, and then start to slide back? A lot hinges on whether and how long it takes mills to catch up on orders.

Sheet prices continue to inch higher. And people who once thought hot-rolled coil (HR) prices couldn’t go above $1,000 are now saying $1,100 doesn’t seem out of the question.

Since the Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA (reciprocal) tariffs imposed by the Trump administration were illegal, the subject of refunds has been circulating. A lower court has ruled refunds are due to importers affected by these tariffs, which amounted to an estimated $166 billion.

When nations eye their trade policy these days, are they only seeing tariffs? It might seem that way, especially after reading a presidential executive order or five over the last year. But is the condition spreading?

While decarbonization has fallen out of the headlines a bit, that doesn't mean it's gone away. Tariffs, geopolitical instability, outright war... there has been a lot to write about in the last year.

The US steel market is already characterized by high prices and tight supplies, and I wouldn't be surprised if prices move higher and supplies get even tighter – at least in the short term.

It's been just two weeks since the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran. And markets are still in flux as we wade through conflicting messages from the administration on what the goals are when it could be over.

Sometimes it feels like current events are like a fireworks show that got set off all at once by mistake. In all the commotion, it's hard to know where to look... or where to run.

Prices are moving up and lead times moving. And most people expect them to continue to do so for a little while longer, according to our latest survey results. But there is one big wildcard: the Iran war.

Let’s say the going price for HR is around $1,000/st. Want to place a 1,000-ton spot order at that price? Good luck. It probably won’t be easy.

I grew up in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais in southeastern Brazil, surrounded by the Serra do Curral mountains, and a culture steeped in mining and vast iron ore reserves.

U.S. Steel marked its 125th anniversary yesterday. When you look at the massive changes that have occurred in the country over that time, perhaps it puts the current unpredictability in the steel industry into perspective.

Even folks who had been firmly in what I’ll call the “February peak” camp now seem to agree that sheet and plate prices could move higher for longer than they anticipated.