Tag: Final Thoughts

Republicans got shellacked in the midterms on Tuesday. Equities got shellacked on Wall St. on Thursday. And steel prices continued upward as if nothing had happened. I asked a couple of weeks ago whether the supply squeeze we’re seeing now is more intense than what we saw in 2021. It’s becoming increasingly clear that it is by most metrics, with the notable exception of price. Don’t believe me? Read our exclusive interview with Worthington Steel President and CEO Geoff Gilmore. If you take away just one quote, this is it: "I’ve been in the business for 28 years, and this is the toughest market that I’ve encountered," Gilmore told SMU.

We’re in rarefied air for the US domestic steel industry. Mill lead times are approaching or even exceeding (in the case of plate) records set in 2021. Prices, meanwhile, are on an epic run—13 months and counting. Availability, not price, is the largest hurdle buyers are facing. And market participants think the shortage could stay around for a while. Incoming imports and mills catching up after fall maintenance could ease the squeeze. Even so, most sources do not expect meaningful relief until 2027.

"Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.

On the face of it, nothing much changed in the US steel market this week. Lead times continue to extend. Inventories remain lean. And mills can pretty much name their price. Sheet lead times, which extend well into December, remain at the highest levels we’ve seen since 2021. Plate lead times, meanwhile, set a new record. At 11 weeks on average, they’re higher than anything we’ve recorded – including during the boom year of ’21.

If you’re a Seinfeld fan, you probably remember the classic episode about “The Soup Nazi.” I think there might be some parallels between that clip and the tone of 2027 contract negotiations between domestic mills and steel buyers.

SMU’s latest steel market survey is out, and it paints a picture of a market we’re all familiar with now: long lead times, mills firmly in control of pricing, and an expectation that US sheet prices will remain stronger for longer, despite increased interest in imports.

With the recent surge in steel prices and the increased melt rate, the price of ferrous scrap has only marginally improved.

The rally in steel sheet prices is officially a year old. We haven’t seen a yearlong price rally since 2021, when a snapback in demand following the early days of the pandemic resulted in one of the biggest steel market booms since World War II.

If the question is, “Brother, can you spare a spot ton?” The answer from many mills might be “No.” Or perhaps, in the case of hot-rolled (HR) coil, “Do you have $1,300 per ton?”

If you’re looking for a deal on steel, this last week wasn’t the one to find one. (Nor was the week before that. Or the week before that.) Meanwhile, contract negotiations are heating up in one of the tightest markets since at least 2021. I've heard discounts will be lower, min-max ranges will be tighter, and there will be less freight equalization and waiving extras.

First, a big thank you to everyone who attended SMU Steel Summit this week and the inaugural AMU Aluminum Summit as well. I’m not going to crow too much about it being another record year in terms of attendance. But it was—and you made that possible. Also, it’s always great to see the entire steel […]

A potential trade deal with Canada and a possible reduction in Section 232 tariffs has rocketed back into the news just a few weeks after it seemed like negotiations between Washington and Ottawa were kaput.

We’re a little over a week away from the opening of SMU Steel Summit, one of the largest gatherings of flat-rolled steel professionals in the world. If you’re registered, I encourage you to download the conference app. You’ll use it not only for networking but also to ask questions to our speakers. You’ll also need […]

It’s tough to find a new angle to write about in a market that continues to be characterized by the same trends. You know the ones: extremely limited spot tons, long lead times, low inventories, and high prices.

A look at trends in the international scrap market.

A wrap-up following USMCA review columns from SMA, AISI, and the CSPA.

The US reliance on foreign pig iron has led some to eye bringing production back to our shores.

If a trend of flat lead times holds, it would represent a change. And we’ve also seen a few of the other indicators we track slip from historic highs – so the potential shift is worth paying attention to.

Starting on June 26, SMU’s Final Thoughts will become a standalone article delivered on Fridays, creating a dedicated space for thought leadership and market analysis from our experts.

What comes next? Do prices plateau and then dip in late Q3/Q4 – which is what we saw in 2021? Or do they continue to rise into 2027?

Domestic hot band prices are at a multi-year high, presently averaging $1,145 per short ton (st). They’re on a 39-week rally that has seen prices climb $360/st over that span.

Starting on June 26, SMU’s Final Thoughts will become a standalone article delivered on Fridays, creating a dedicated space for thought leadership and market analysis from our experts.

While the way we deliver Final Thoughts is changing on Friday, our commitment to bring you the most up-to-date steel news remains unwavering.

We are in full ramp-up mode here at Steel Market Update as we put the final touches on North America’s largest flat‑rolled steel industry gathering of the year.

Starting June 26, SMU’s Final Thoughts will become a standalone article delivered every Friday, creating a dedicated space for thought leadership and market analysis from our experts.

SMU released May service center inventories on Monday. And if you’re a premium subscriber, I recommend reading the report (here) if you haven’t already.

Summer doldrums? Not this year! SMU’s latest steel market survey indicates that an increasing number of steel buyers think prices will continue to rise along with the mercury.

The World Cup only comes around every four years. So let's take a walk down memory lane to see where the steel market stood four years ago.

Has anyone seen a creature called the “spot ton” in the wild? I ask because they used to be a common sight. And now I hear they’re endangered.

Most companies making steel are making a lot money. And they will continue to as current high prices flow into contracts in Q3. I don’t want to kill the vibe. (No one likes that guy.) But let’s put on your risk-manager cap for a second and imagine what might keep everything from moving up and to the right indefinitely.