Scrap prices fall in June, with busheling tumbling $30/gt

“I don’t recall another six-month period to begin a year that has been similar,” he added, saying that he believes shredded scrap is now at the lowest price since October-November 2022.

The source said the fundamental issue “is concern about demand for finished steel and the fact that there is too much in the system between domestic production and imports.” 

He noted that this has been going on for the last four months.

Despite this trend, the June fall-off surprised many, with nearly 60% of respondents in SMU’s most recent survey having expected stable or higher prices this month.

SMU’s June scrap pricing stands at:

• Busheling at $370-390/gt, averaging $380, down $30 from May.
• Shredded at $365-385/gt, averaging $375, down $15 from May.
• HMS at $300-320/gt, averaging $310, down $10 from May.

Outlook

“While imports should begin to slow down as US finished steel prices are in line with global prices now, it’s a slow process to work off the excess inventory,” the source said. “Until then, which will likely be around when prices bottom, I don’t expect an improvement in demand for scrap.”

Another source, eyeing the Ohio Valley, said there was “very limited demand in the region with little hope of improvement in July.”

Looking across the nation, the first source said, ”I don’t see upside for US scrap in July, though after this many months of down markets, we could see a sideways move.” 

However, a third source was slightly more optimistic, saying, “Given how far the scrap market fell this month, l believe July demand will improve, and prices may rise modestly, especially for shredded scrap.”