Steel market chatter this week

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Steel prices are inflecting up and moving higher. How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“They seem to be moving upward very slowly right now, but with this slow movement, I doubt it will last three months.”

“I don’t truly know if I believe they’re ‘moving higher.’ We all know that pricing never really stays level, but I don’t see any real catalyst for things rocketing higher.”

“I expect prices to rise in the near term, but am concerned that prices will come under pressure and reduce drastically when lead times reach summer slowdown.”

“Plate lower. Too many large, discounted index agreements given to the large service centers.”

“Unless scrap moves up, they will struggle to find their way to $900. Demand is good, but not good enough to support a long upward price trend.”

“I predict discrete plate up for many reasons. Demand improving in Q2, infrastructure projects breaking loose, service centers need to restock inventories that have been underreported/depleted.”

“Prices will increase through maybe June. Mills are looking to gain control of price once again.”

“Flat to slightly up. I think supply and demand are fairly balanced, and ‘bullying’ by steel mills would be needed get further increases.”

“I expect prices to move up the next couple months and then start falling again until late third quarter or early fourth quarter.”

“Pricing seems to be in a holding pattern at the moment. Overall, I would expect it to be higher by the middle of June before a summer dip.”

“They will flatten out. Demand is not strong.”

Is demand improving, declining, or stable?

“Demand is solid in near term, with increased spot buying and contract buying heavy with re-stocking. But I imagine it is short lived.”

“Demand is fickle – last week it was highest it has been since beginning of March, but the two weeks before that, it was declining.”

“Demand is okay. We’re actually beating forecasts, but every mill and service center I’ve spoken with in the last two weeks is still slow and/or hungry.”

“Stable, spring construction demand is improving and mills have cut their capacity.”

“Demand remains stable.”

“Stable to soft. While there are pockets of solid activity, it appears that the market remains cautious of the economy (election year).”

“Declining overall, still haven’t seen our spot customers jumping back into the market. They still believe pricing has room to go down.”

“Discrete plate is improving.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Based on the months on hand reports, I’d say slower. However, with more folks buying short versus long, it may feel like it’s moving faster … at least in fits and starts.”

“I think inventory is moving fast right now because of the two increases in the last month.”

“Faster due to increases in steel pricing.”

“Inventory seems to be running at a good pace. But we are hand-to-mouth. Our levels are lean anyway.”

“Almost exactly the same as last year at this time.”

“Inventory moving about the same as last year.”

“Moving at about the same rate for flat rolled.”

“Slower, we were going through a very busy period at this time last year.”

“Currently slower, increasing in Q2.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Imports are always more attractive. … Price and decent quality.”

“Imports are back to looking good pricing-wise, but the lead time comparison is still pretty off-putting.”

“Imports are more attractive because of price, but extended lead times conflict with buyers believing domestic prices will fall over the next couple months.”

“Starting to be, but the strong Euro holds them back a bit.”

“Perhaps near term, but not long term.”

“Not at the moment, but if any more domestic increases happen they will be.”

“Not as attractive due to long lead times vs. mill pricing and shorter lead times domestically.”

“Imports take too long to arrive, and there are always delays. The domestic market is too volatile to take the chance with imports.”

“Imports on discrete plate are not attractive due to suspect quality issues.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“How will this Baltimore issue affect the steel industry?”

“Potential Evraz sale. Nucor Brandenburg – will it ever hit its potential?”

“I’ve seen it called out a few times here recently, but (1) is AHMSA going to be producing material in earnest soon? And (2) who/when/why with regards to the Evraz sale?”

“What does the manufacturing space look like without the government-funded projects? What does the landscape for steel consumption as a whole look like without these government projects and monies?”

“Presidential outcome impact on steel either way.”

“Quotas from Brazil being reviewed.”