SMU Data and Models
Apparent steel supply surpasses 8.5 million tons in January
Written by Brett Linton
March 12, 2024
The apparent supply of steel in the US increased in January, rising to a five-month high, according to data compiled from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Supply is now up to 8.55 million short tons (st) in January, 5% greater than December levels and 7% higher than November’s nine-month low.
Apparent steel supply is calculated by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deducting total US steel exports.
Viewing supply levels on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the month-to-month variability. The 3MMA through January was relatively unchanged from December at 8.21 million st. The 3MMA has been trending downward overall since peaking in late 2021.
Apparent supply in January was 3% lower than the same month one year ago when the supply was 8.84 million st. Attribute this to a decline in both domestic mill shipments and finished imports from levels one year prior. Figure 3 shows a year-over-year (y/y) comparison for the month of January across the last four years.
Looking at the last four months, apparent supply had eased to a nine-month low in November but has since increased each month since (Figure 4). This recovery is primarily due to an uptick in finished imports after November, as well as a jump in domestic shipments from December to January.
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.