SMU Data and Models
SMU's February at a glance
Written by Brett Linton
March 5, 2024
Steel prices continued to ease lower throughout February, following a loss of upwards momentum in the middle of January.
The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products remained at Lower since its mid-January adjustment from Neutral. Like sheet, the Price Momentum Indicator on plate remained at Lower all through February.
We saw hot-rolled coil (HRC) tags start the month around $980 per short ton (st), slipping $40-65 per st each week through month’s end. By the end of February, HRC prices eased 15% from the beginning of the month to $830 per ton. Tandem products saw smaller declines in this period, falling 10%. Plate prices saw the softest decline in February, easing 7%.
Raw material prices were stable to down across the month. Busheling scrap prices declined for the second consecutive month, slipping $35 from January. Shred and HMS scrap prices were relatively flat. Read our recent outlook on the March scrap market here. LME zinc spot prices eased in the first half of the month, while aluminum prices held mostly stable. You can view and chart multiple products in greater detail using our interactive pricing tool here.
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index remained positive but eased to an eight-week low at the end of the month. Future Buyers’ Sentiment moved in the opposite direction, rising to a near-six-month high last week.
Hot rolled lead times averaged 5 weeks in February, easing lower throughout the month. Lead times for each product we track are nearing lows last seen in September of last year. SMU expects lead times to potentially dip further due to reduced demand. A history of HRC lead times can be found in our interactive pricing tool as well.
About 96% of HRC buyers reported that mills were willing to negotiate on prices through late-February. Buyers have reported more mill willingness to negotiate each month since December.
Key indicators of steel demand continue to show some signs of weakness overall, with most nowhere near the bullish levels seen in recent years.
See the chart below for other key metrics for February:
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.