SMU Price Ranges: Sheet Prices Flattish - Peak or Pause?

Our average hot-rolled coil price stands at $1,145 per ton ($57.25 per cwt), up $5 per ton from last week. The last time such a small gain was recorded was on January 17, according to our pricing tool, when the current rally was only beginning to gain steam.

Other flat-rolled steel products also saw comparatively modest gains vs. the sharp increases that occurred between February and mid-March. Cold rolled was up $20 per ton WoW, galvanized was up $5 per ton, Galvalume was up $40 per ton, and plate was up $20 per ton.

Recall that mills haven’t announced a sheet price hike since March 13, when Cleveland-Cliffs increased prices by $100 per ton ($5 per cwt) and announced a new minimum base of $1,200 per ton for hot-rolled coil.

Those who think another round of increases are likely, contend that mills want to get prevailing spot prices above $1,200 per ton before summer. But others questioned whether that was feasible given that US mills are likely to come under increasing pressure from imports.

Some sources, hinting that any downturn might be swift, questioned whether offshore HRC would still represent a bargain once it arrived at US ports in July/August.

In the meantime, however, all our sheet and plate momentum indicators continue to point toward upward.

Hot-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,090–1,200 per net ton ($54.50–60.00/cwt), with an average of $1,145 per ton ($57.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range increased by $10 per ton, while the top end was unchanged vs. one week ago. Our overall average is up $5 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator for hot-rolled coil points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

*Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 4–8 weeks

Cold-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,280–1,400 per net ton ($64.00–70.00/cwt) with an average of $1,340 per ton ($67.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up by $40 per ton, while the top end was flat compared to a week ago. Our overall average is up $20 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled coil points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

*Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 6–10 weeks

Galvanized Coil: The SMU price range is $1,250–1,400 per net ton ($62.50–70.00/cwt) with an average of $1,325 per ton ($66.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up $10 per ton. The top end was unchanged WoW. Our overall average is up $5 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,347–1,497 per ton with an average of $1,422 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

*Galvanized Lead Times: 5–10 weeks

Galvalume Coil: The SMU price range is $1,340–1,420 per net ton ($67.00-71.00/cwt) with an average of $1,380 per ton ($69.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of the range was up $60 per ton vs. the week prior, while the top end of our range increased by $20 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average is up $40 per ton from one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,634–1,714 per ton with an average of $1,674 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

*Galvalume Lead Times: 8–10 weeks

Plate: The SMU price range is $1,520–1,590 per net ton ($76.00–79.50/cwt), with an average of $1,555 per ton ($77.75/cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of the range rose $10 per ton WoW, while the top end of our increased $30 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average increased by $20 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate is pointing Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

*Plate Lead Times: 5–10 weeks

*Lead times are preliminary and will be updated on Thursday.

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Editor’s note: The initial version of this article, published on Tuesday, March 28, did not include updated plate prices. It was subsequently updated to reflect the correct prices shown above. Prices on our website and in our interactive pricing tool were updated correctly and on time.

By Michael Cowden, michael@steelmarketupdate.com