Contributor: Michael Cowden

After a March frenzy, are prices nearing a peak in April? Some of you have suggested that they are. Others think it's too early to make any such call.

President Trump’s tariffs are aimed in large part at bringing manufacturing back to the United States. In theory, it’s simple enough: Want to avoid a big tariff? Make it in the US!

Wonder what the fallout from all the Trump tariffs might be? A manufacturing renaissance? A post-WWII order in ashes? Or something a little more down the middle? Then register for our next Community Chat on Thursday, March 13 at 11 am ET. Yes, you read that correctly, SMU is shattering precedent by holding a Community Chat on a day that is not Wednesday. Our featured speaker will be Alan Price, a leading trade attorney at Wiley and someone whose columns you read regularly in SMU.

Remember infrastructure week in Trump 1.0? It became a running joke. Because it was almost always derailed by whatever the scandal of the day was. In Trump 2.0, we've got tariff week. And unlike infrastructure week, tariff week is no joke.

Nucor has increased its list price for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $900 per short ton (st), according to a letter to customers on Monday. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker’s list price for HR is up $40/st from $860/st last week and up $125/st from $775/st a month ago, according to SMU’s mill price announcement calendar. The […]

That’s not to say Section 232 shouldn’t be tightened up. Or that certain trade practices – even among our traditional allies – weren’t problematic. But when it comes to the reboot of Section 232, I do wonder whether there will be some unintended consequences.

Market participants might disagree over how high flat-rolled steel price might go and for how long they might remain elevated. But there is near total agreement on one thing: Prices are up sharply again this week. The gains come on the heels of waves of mill price increases (for sheet and for plate), expectations that scrap prices will rise again in March, and the threat of tariffs looming over the market.

Nucor aims to increase prices for steel plate by $160 per short ton (st) with the opening of its April order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the increase was effective with orders received on Feb. 24 in a letter to customers dated the same day.

The US steel market has whipsawed upward on the prospect of expanded Section 232 tariffs of 25% being applied to imported steel - including downstream goods - on March 12. It seems pretty clear that domestic steel mills have the ear of the Trump administration when it comes to Section 232. The result? The much-anticipated Trump bump has finally arrived - and then some.

Cleveland-Cliffs said it will open its April order book for spot material at $900 per short ton (st). The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the increase was necessary because of “rapidly changing market conditions” in a letter to customers dated Friday, Feb. 21.

Some of you have told me that the current market feels about as crazy as early 2021 when demand snapped back after the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Others have said it might be more like late February/early March 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – and, in the process, caused […]

SSAB has increased plate prices by a total of $240/st in less than a month. That tally results from the current increase, an increase of $80/st in early February, and another of $60/st in late January, according to SMU’s price announcement calendar.

NLMK USA has opened its April order book at new, higher base prices for steel sheet, according to market participants. The steelmaker is seeking at least $900 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil and at least $1,100/st for cold-rolled and coated products, they said.

It’s been an eventful (and chaotic) start to the year for steel and aluminum as industry tries to navigate new Trump administration.

U.S. Steel has increased prices for flat-rolled steel by at least $50 per short ton (st), according to market participants. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker now seeks a minimum of $850/st for hot-rolled (HR) coil. And it seeks at least $1,050/st for cold-rolled and coated base prices, they said.

Sheet and plate prices surged higher this week on a wave of what some called “panic buying” following the Trump administration’s announcement of stricter Section 232 measures last week.

I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).

Josh Spoores, principal analyst at CRU, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 19, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available for free to SMU members. You can register here.

A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.

President Donald Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported to the US, according to Bloomberg. Trump said he would make an announcement about the matter on Monday. It was not clear when the tariffs might take effect.

Nippon Steel has agreed to “invest heavily in U.S. Steel as opposed to own it,” President Donald Trump said on Friday during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. U.S. Steel is “a very important company” and was once “the greatest company in the world”. Of potential foreign ownership of the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker, Trump said, “the concept, psychologically, not good."

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price of $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. The steelmaker is also seeking $1,050/st for cold-rolled product and $1,000/st for coated material, according to a letter to customers dated Wednesday.

The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

The Trump administration will implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, according to a White House fact sheet and executive orders circulated on Saturday. The administration said that it would tariff “energy resources” from Canada at a lower rate – 10%. The tariffs will go into effect at 12:01 ET on Tuesday, according to an executive order. The White House documents made no mention of exemptions.

U.S. Steel has increased sheet prices by $50 per short ton (st), according to market participants. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker has also set a new target price of $800/st for hot-rolled (HR) coil, they said.

From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.

U.S. Steel’s losses widened in the fourth quarter on lower steel prices, weaker demand, and startup costs relating to the expansion of its Big River Steel EAF sheet mill in Arkansas. But the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker said it expected results to improve in 2025 as Big River 2 – the project to double capacity at the Osceola, Ark., mill - gains steam.

SMU’s sheet prices were mixed this week. Hot-rolled (HR) coil and plate notched gains while prices for coated products stagnated or dipped lower. Our HR price now stands at $700 per short ton (st) on average, up $15/st from last week and marking the highest level for HR prices since $705/st in early October. SMU’s […]

Nucor Corp. posted sharply lower fourth quarter earnings on Monday driven in part by lower average selling prices at its steel mills. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker also warned that first-quarter results might not be much better in commentary released with earnings data. But Nucor said that it expected better times later in 2025. It also hinted at the possibility of ramped up trade restrictions – including more stringent Section 232 tariffs.