We surveyed many of you this week and asked what you wanted to see from the new Trump administration. Responses were varied but fell largely into three groups: tariffs and trade policy, the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, and those who are concerned about too much government sway in steel. Some also expressed hope that President Trump would continue the infrastructure spending that began under former President Biden.
Steel Dynamic Inc.’s profits narrowed in the fourth quarter of 2024 on lower prices, import competition, and continued losses from its sheet mill in Sinton, Texas. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker said results also suffered from an unplanned outage at its sheet mill in Butler, Ind. That reduced sales volumes by approximately 50,000 tons.
Sheet and plate prices remained in a holding pattern this week as the market awaited more specifics on potential Trump administration tariffs.
President Donald Trump said on Monday evening that he was considering placing tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico. The president said the tariffs could go into effect as soon as Feb. 1. President Trump threatened the tariffs as he signed a raft of executive orders in front of reporters in the Oval […]
What’s been the impact of tariff threats on prices and demand? In short, not much – or at least that was the case when I was writing this column on Sunday afternoon. Spot activity for Canadian material, for example, has been put on hold over the last few weeks while the market waits to see what the new tariff landscape might look like.
It’s another week of big headlines and ho-hum pricing moves – which is to say the start of 2025 is looking a lot like the end of 2024. Scrap has settled up $20 per gross ton (gt). Steel prices, however, were a soft sideways this week. Chalk it up to uneven demand and abundant supply. And while we’re not aware of any major outages, some of you tell us that you’ve lost some shipping days here and there because of the recent cold snap.
Steel prices ticked lower this week for four of the five products SMU tracks, according to our latest canvass of the sheet and plate markets. Following last week’s bump, our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, and plate indices all edged lower this week by $5-15 per short ton (st) on average. Galvalume was the only […]
I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.
Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) President Philip K. Bell will join SMU for our first Community Chat of 2025. We’ll talk about what to expect from the incoming Trump administration, the changing trade and tariff landscape – and what it all means for domestic steelmakers, service centers, and manufacturers. Don’t miss out! Mark your calendar for Jan. 15 at 11 am ET.
Steel prices didn't start the new year with a bang - but they didn't bust, either, according to SMU's first survey of 2025. On the sheet side, market participants generally predicted that prices should move higher this year on the coated trade petition and the potential for tariffs under President-elect Trump. But most buyer sources weren’t eager to load up given the uncertain timing and scope of the potential tariffs. They also cited increasing domestic capacity and modest demand.
I’m not sure what to say about President Biden’s blocking Nippon Steel’s deal for U.S. Steel that hasn’t already been said. I think it’s fair to say, as U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt did, that this was ultimately all about politics and had very little to do with national security. SMU has tried to remain […]
We never eat chicken on New Year’s Day. My Irish-Catholic grandmother thought it was bad luck – because chickens scratch backward. And one should start the year looking forward. But it’s hard to avoid the fact that we’re carrying a lot 2024 issues (and even 2023 ones) forward into 2025. That’s not all bad. We’re starting 2025 with SMU’s hot-rolled coil price at $675/per short ton (st). That’s $370/st lower than $1045/st at the outset of 2023, according to our interactive pricing tool. I think we can safely say that a decline of that magnitude won’t happen in 2025.
The Community Chat last Wednesday with ITR economist Taylor St. Germain is worth listening to if you couldn’t tune in live. You can find the replay and Taylor’s slide deck here. You can also find SMU reporter Stephanie Ritenbaugh’s writeup of the webinar here. Taylor is Alan Beaulieu’s protégé at ITR. Many of you know Alan from his talks at SMU Steel Summit. I found Taylor’s analysis just as insightful as Alan’s.
Cleveland-Cliffs plans to increase prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $800 per short ton (st). Cliffs said the increase announcement coincides with the opening of its February order book for both contract and spot tons of HR.
It’s been another week of torrid speculation when it comes Trump and tariffs. And another week of mostly flat price movement when it comes to steel sheet and plate. As far as Trump and tariffs go, I think I might have lost track. We've potentially got 10% blanket tariffs on imports from China, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 100% tariffs on the BRICs, and 200% on Caterpillar. Canada might be the 51st state. Mexico could be the 52nd state. But all can be resolved if you stop by Mar-a-Lago and kiss the ring?
“Trump took to Twitter.” That was a familiar story lead in Trump 1.0. Now it’s “Trump took to Truth Social (or X)." The latest example: President-elect Donald Trump on Monday evening said he was “totally against” U.S. Steel being acquired by Nippon Steel in a post on Truth Social.
Cleveland-Cliffs has officially had spot HRC prices at $750/st since mid-September.
ITR economist Tyler St. Germain will join SMU for a Community Chat on Dec. 11 at 11 am ET. You can register here. The live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members. We'll discuss the 2025-26 outlook for both the overall economy and also for manufacturing. We’ll in addition discuss how Trump administration policies when it comes to tariffs and immigration might impact the steel sector and key end use markets.
And so it begins (again). Not to be outdone by Thanksgiving, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico. He also threatened to hit all imports from China with tariffs of 10% - an amount that would come on top of a boatload of pre-existing duties and tariffs.
President-elect Donald Trump threatened on social media Monday evening to impose tariffs of 25% on all US imports from Canada and Mexico.
It’s once again A Tale of Two Cities in the steel market. Some are almost euphoric about Trump’s victory. Others, some rather bearish, are more focused on the day-to-day market between now and Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were mixed this week with slight declines across most products and a modest increase in prices for cold-rolled coil.
President-elect Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves through the political establishment (again). And steel markets and ferrous scrap markets continue to be, well, anything but shocking. As the French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." (I thought the quote might have been Yankees catcher Yogi Berra in 1949. Google taught me something new today.)
President-elect Donald Trump will officially retake the White House on Jan. 20. I’ve been getting questions about how his administration’s policies might reshape the steel industry and domestic manufacturing. I covered the tumult and norm busting of Trump's first term: Section 232, Section 301, USMCA - and that's just on the trade policy side of things. It's safe to say that we'll have no shortage of news in 2025 when it comes to trade and tariffs.
Prices for sheet and plate products were mixed this week. While market participants have noted a post-election uptick in activity, most said that it was (so far) nothing to write home about.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research for Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat. The webinar will be on Wednesday, Nov. 13, at 11 am ET. It’s free to attend. You can register here. Timna – who has coined Sheet Storm, Scrap Squeeze, and Galv Galore – is one of the most popular guests on our Community Chats. Her insights and forecasts are always thought-provoking.
Votes were still being counted when this column posted on Tuesday evening. And I’d be surprised if we know who the president will be by the time some of you are reading it on Wednesday morning.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research for Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat. Tanners – who has coined Sheet Storm, Scrap Squeeze, and Galv Galore – is one of the most popular guests on our Community Chats. Her insights and forecasts are always thought provoking.
It’s official. U.S. Steel has made the first coil at Big River Steel 2 (BRS2). We congratulate the company and all the hard work that went into achieving that milestone. USS said BRS2 would begin shipments to customers this quarter. And we’re assuming those volumes will increase into Q1'25.
Nucor said it is seeking $740 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil this week, up $20/st from last week. USS, meanwhile, is shooting for up $30/st for sheet products in general. (USS did not announce a target price for HR.)