Final Thoughts

However, with this interconnected globalized economy, it’s hard for any industry to stay siloed, especially a primary material like steel. Also, let’s take a breath and see what happens with the 25% tariffs on imported autos that go into effect today. (Tariffs on auto parts come by May 3 at the latest, according to the White House.) And, finally, do not look at the stock market!

With all of the craziness in the run-up to liberation, our responses from the last two surveys show diminishing enthusiasm for the Trump tariffs in general. (And you never know when another round of tariffs will be announced.)

Let’s take a look:

Weighing tariff benefits, the “Yes” votes fell 10 percentage points over a two-week period, while “No” votes and “I’m not sure” increased by five percentage points, respectively. And, remember, from our previous surveys it seems a majority in the steel industry were generally supportive of President Trump’s policies.

Markets famously don’t care for uncertainty, and with the rollout of these tariffs, uncertainty seems to be the order of the day. Can we expect these original rates to stick? Will there be exemptions? Will there be some kind of large reversal that we can’t even imagine right now? Anything’s possible post-liberation.

So, to get an idea of what industry participants along the supply chain are thinking, let’s take a look at some responses from the SMU survey. While the percentages above are useful, participants’ most recent responses will help you take the pulse of the market. Also, they will vitally show one other thing: You’re not alone.

The survey officially closed on Wednesday, April 2, at 4:00 p.m ET, but many responses were entered before then. So, for the most part, they reflect pre-Liberation sentiments.

What survey respondents are saying:

Hurting

“Tariffs ALWAYS reduce economic efficiency. Some players will make money in the short term, but, on balance, it will negatively effect economic output.”

“We are a Canadian manufacturer. Our costs are rising and demand declining because of the tariffs and the effects of tariffs on our customers’ products and income.”

“Restricting finished imports makes sales prices higher without increasing feedstock costs appreciably.”

“They are not helping. Creating too much uncertainty on costs and demand and everything.”

“Higher taxes do not increase demand. Tariffs are taxes.”

“We import products that are not available or scarce here in the US.”

“Uncertainty is not helpful. Short to medium term will be painful.”

“Using trade policy to browbeat other countries while blue collar workers take it on the chin. Inflation? Stagflation…?”

“Panic buying.”

Uncertain, but with hint of negative

“Who knows? They keep changing every week. I pity the mills and big SSCs, though. If we have peaked already, then they didn’t make enough money on the way up to cushion themselves on the way down.”

“TBD. I think tariffs net are good for US manufacturing, but the implementation is getting sloppy.”

“Opening up opportunity to disrupt current supply chains, but will hurt OEMs and end-users down the line when cost increases get passed through.”

“Too hard this early to evaluate if domestic buying increases get offset by lower USMCA demand.”

Helping

“It’s time we start moving toward balanced/fair trade. It has been out of our favor for too long. When the USA is strong and prosperous, the rest of the world will be stronger and benefit immensely.”

“The short-term impact is helping restore reasonable margins. The long-term impact will help the overall US steel industry.”

What comes next?

How will the world react to US liberation? There will be frantic calls to Washington, D.C. There will be antacids taken. And something, inevitably, will emerge on the other side. But we’re definitely not there yet.

Now, I’m going to refrain from using “Buckle up” in this situation. Frankly, it’s overused. What I will say is that if you are in the aisle, you may want to return to your seat… and the captain has turned on the fasten… OK, OK, just buckle up.