US and offshore HRC prices tick lower

Growing caution as buyers await clarity on tariffs has eased buying and brought US prices down slightly. This week, SMU’s average domestic HR price was $945 per short ton (st), down $5/st vs. the previous week but up by more than $260/st from late January. Emboldened by tariffs, domestic mills continue pushing prices higher. But easing buying might have slowed the price gains this week.

Domestic HR is now theoretically 14.5% more expensive than imported material, down slightly from 14.7% last week. The widest margin stateside hot band had over imports in over a year came just two weeks ago. The margin immediately fell 10.8 percentage points once S232 took effect on March 12 and was little moved week over week (w/w).

In dollar-per-ton terms, US HR is now, on average, $138/st more expensive than offshore product (see Figure 1). That’s roughly $2/st lower than the previous week.

The charts below compare HR prices in the US, Germany, Italy, and Asia. The left side highlights prices over the last two years and the right side zooms in to show more recent trends.

Methodology

SMU calculates the theoretical spread between domestic (FOB mill) and foreign (delivered to US ports) HR coil prices by comparing its weekly US HR assessment to CRU’s weekly HR indices for Germany, Italy, and East and Southeast Asian ports. This calculation is purely theoretical, as actual import costs can vary significantly, affecting the true market spread.

To estimate the CIF price at US ports, we add a $90/st charge to all foreign prices to account for freight, handling, and trader margins, along with the 25% blanket tariff. This $90/st figure serves as a general benchmark — buyers should adjust it based on their specific shipping and handling expenses.

If you import steel and have insights on these costs, we’d love to hear from you. Contact the author at david@steelmarketupdate.com.

Asian HRC (East and Southeast Asian ports)

As of Wednesday, March 26, the CRU Asian HRC price was $468/st, up $5/st vs. the week prior. Adding a 25% tariff and $90/st in estimated import costs, the delivered price of Asian HRC to the US is ~$675/st. As noted above, the latest SMU US HR price is $945/st on average.

The result: Prices for US-produced HR are theoretically $270/st higher than steel imported from Asia – $16/st lower w/w. The premium remains in line with recent highs seen in 2023 when stateside tags were ~$300 /st more expensive than Asian products.

Italian HRC

Italian HR prices were $8/st lower this week at $615/st, according to CRU. After reintroducing a 25% tariff and $90/st in estimated import costs, the delivered price of Italian HR is, in theory, $859/st.

That means domestic HR coil is theoretically $86/st more expensive than imports from Italy – up $5/st w/w but still a $148/st swing before S232 was reinstated when stateside prices were, in theory, $234/st above Italian imports.

German HRC

CRU’s German HR price was down $9/st to $641/st this week. After adding a 25% tariff and $90/st import costs, the delivered price of German HR coil is, in theory, $892/st.

The result: Domestic HR is theoretically $53/st more expensive than HR imported from Germany, up $6/st from last week. Stateside hot band held a $207/st premium just three weeks ago – the widest margin in 14 months.

Editor’s note

Freight is important when deciding whether to import foreign steel or buy from a domestic mill. Domestic prices are referenced as FOB the producing mill. Foreign prices are CIF, the port (Houston, NOLA, Savannah, Los Angeles, Camden, etc.). Inland freight, from either a domestic mill or from the port, can dramatically impact the competitiveness of both domestic and foreign steel. It’s also important to factor in lead times. In most markets, domestic steel will deliver more quickly than foreign steel. Effective March 12, 2025, undiluted Section 232 tariffs were reinstated on steel. All steel imports and many derivative products now face a 25% tariff. Therefore, the German and Italian price comparisons in this analysis now include a 25% tariff. We do not include any antidumping (AD) or countervailing duties (CVD) in this analysis.