SMU Survey: Buyers' Sentiment Indices slip, but optimism remains

The Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index has fallen slightly in our last two surveys. However, it continues to show that buyers maintain a positive outlook for the first half of the year. While still optimistic overall, this is one of the lower readings seen in recent months.

This is the second consecutive survey where Current Sentiment has been greater than Future Sentiment. While not uncommon, the last time we saw buyers more optimistic for current business conditions than future expectations was in early 2024.

Every other week we poll over one thousand steel industry executives. We ask them to rate their companies’ chances of success in today’s market, as well as their business expectations for the next three to six months. This data is used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics tracked since 2008.

Current Sentiment

SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index declined four points from mid-February to +62 (Figure 1). Prior to this survey, Sentiment had climbed to the highest level seen since April 2024.

Future Sentiment

Future Sentiment fell five points this week to +60. Future Sentiment has trended lower since late 2024 but remains in healthy territory (Figure 2). Future Sentiment averaged +65 across 2024 and was slightly higher at +70 this time last year.

What SMU survey respondents had to say:

“We’ll be good, but purely because we can take advantage of pricing in this market.”

“Price increases are a great time to capitalize on growth.”

“The increasing prices will help all mills and service centers in the short run.”

“Domestic mills are ruining the market, running it up only because of tariffs.”

“We’ll certainly be less successful in 3-6 months if prices are trending down.”

“Tariffs will negatively affect our company.”

“Tariffs and trade cases are a huge risk.”

“Less optimistic for the future due to low end consumer demand.”

Sentiment trends

When analyzed as a three-month moving average, Sentiment Indices moved in differing directions this week (Figure 3).

The Current Sentiment 3MMA has been moving upwards since the start of this year, increasing to an eight-month high this week to +48.27.

The Future Sentiment 3MMA has eased across the last month (following early-February’s 13-month high), now standing at +66.44.

About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index

The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. A link to our methodology is here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.