Scrap market chatter this week

Want to have your thoughts heard? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

Where will scrap prices be in March?

Busheling scrap: 93% of buyers anticipate increasing scrap prices in March. Nearly half expect prices to settle in the $470-590 per gross ton (gt) range, with most of the remaining predicting prices within $20/gt of that range.

Shredded scrap: Almost 85% of respondents forecast an uptick in shredded prices this month. Of all respondents, 45% expect prices to range between $445-460/gt, while 29% predict prices will be even higher at $460-475/gt.

Heavy melt scrap (HMS): Most respondents expect HMS prices to rise in March. Two-thirds think prices will be in the $385-415/gt range, with the remaining third forecasting prices within $15/gt of that range.

Here are some of the comments we received:

“Everything we’re seeing and hearing points to a decent-sized bump for March.”

“Sounds like up $30-40/gt, with some expecting as much as $60/gt.”

“I am hearing anything from up $20-50/gt.”

“HMS will continue to hold its ~$80 differential to prime scrap.”

“There is little #1 busheling being produced, pig iron is also in short supply with increasing prices.”

“Demand is stable and inbound flows are lower.”

“Panic buying due to tariffs.”

“Tariffs will affect short-term demand.”

“Greed Economics 101 as scrap follows steel price increases. Further, if there were no tariffs they would probably still increase primarily because of seasonal winter conditions.”

“Mills will pay to prop up their price hikes.”

“There is always at least a $250 differential on prime scrap to flat carbon steel prices.”

Do you see the scrap market being in balance now, given supply and demand?

Buyers had mixed opinions, with 55% responding that the market was not in balance and 45% believing it was.

“It is always in balance as volumes and transportation costs determine decision making (scrap yard FOB prices). Scrap flows to exports if prices are too low, or back to plants when steel is too high. The buffer is Canadian scrap which is always in export mode (no tariffs).”

“Definitely not enough supply.”

“Lack of material.”

“Not a lot of scrap is being generated.”

“Low stock, weather related.”

“The cold weather has reduced the flow of shredder feed across the scales.”

“Very tight market, not a lot available or being generated.”

“Tight supply and increasing demand.”

“Suppliers of shredded are way behind on orders and can’t buy enough feedstock.”

“Not enough HMS available. Some is probably being shredded.”

“HMS is not moving well in the winter. Needs another month.”

“Demand is greater than the supply.”

“Hard to say given some of the panic buying for HRC at the mill level.”

“As long as auto demand stays consistent, it will keep prime scrap grades more readily available.”

“Not enough prime scrap being generated by the auto industry and its suppliers.”

Will your company be successful in today’s market? What about three to six months from now?

More than half of respondents (57%) expressed optimism about their current business prospects, while 40% rated them as ‘fair.’

Looking ahead, nearly three-quarters of respondents are optimistic about their company’s future success, with the remaining responding ‘fair.’

“Market is at the right place to make good money. Weather challenges and accessing scrap is the issue in our business until spring.”

“Absolutely!!”

“If I can’t get scrap to sell, I am not making money.”