Final Thoughts

Luckily, it turned out be just a warning. The event was held at the Omni PGA Resort, near Dallas. While golf and lightning often hog a lot of the headlines, throwing in a tornado would really up the ante. At the end of the day, the conference went off without a hitch.

Still, it seems an apt way to describe the current moment we’re living in. The sun could come out… or your house might just get blown off its foundation. Or maybe your neighbor’s house. Like the neighbors on your southern and northern borders. It’s all possible.

When I sat down with SMA President Philip K. Bell on Monday before the conference kicked off, he had an interesting comment.

“I’m in the steel industry. Ethan, so I have to be that eternal optimist,” he said. Bell made the reference regarding hopes of negotiations with the European Union on The Global Arrangement for Sustainable Steel and Aluminum. (Recall those negotiations were put on ice until later this year.)

Judging from our Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, Bell is just one of the many optimists in the steel industry. Here’s a sneak peek look at our upcoming survey data.

While both indices declined, our Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index stands at +62, while Future Sentiment is +60. Still very positive territory. That’s pretty healthy when one considers some are starting to shout the sky is falling. OK, even if the sky is falling, prices are rising…

Geopolitics, trade, and, more specifically – tariffs and tariffs and tariffs – were discussed from many angles at the meeting. Ukraine, the Middle East, the South China Sea. All the hot zones. Each issue on its own has the possibility to move the market. And they’re all happening at once.

Before we get whipsawed by the current moment, I think it’s important to reflect on that optimism Bell mentioned. Whatever happens, consumers are going to need steel. While demand may rise and fall, the fundamental necessity of the material remains. And, in any case, this president seems pretty intent on bringing manufacturing back to these shores. How will it work out in practice?

Another thing Bell told me:

“One of the key reasons that we have this conference … is to allow our members to connect, to learn and to grow, to help people understand both sides of an issue, and to help people understand how dynamic the steel industry supply chain is. When you bring these people together, these types of leaders, these types of companies, it’s just a very powerful feeling.”

It would be foolhardy to say the industry isn’t anxious about what’s happening. In times like this, it is more important than ever to keep informed, to look to leverage any advantage you have. There was a good presentation on AI at the conference, which is advancing rapidly. Now could be a good time to hook up with the best intelligence you can find.

But bringing likeminded folks in the industry together, that’s pretty powerful as well. (Speaking of that, we hope to see you all in Atlanta in August for Steel Summit 2025. Who can even imagine where we will be by then? You can register here.)

So, we’ll wait to see on what happens to the auto tariffs, the Canada/Mexico tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs, etc. And we’ll hold our breath as the various geopolitical skirmishes around the world play themselves out. It’s a lot to take in, even overwhelming at times. One thing is clear, though, at least to me: We’re definitely not in Kansas anymore.