Final Thoughts

Ditto on the Global Arrangement for Sustainable Steel and Aluminum, which was pushed back until the end of 2025. Section 232, with its exceptions, was mostly maintained – and a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system was added.

If it was “kick the can” for the Biden administration, then perhaps “it’s raining tariffs” for Trump 2.0. And we also slapped a 25% tariff on those cans Biden kicked just for good measure.

We here at SMU have been writing a lot about the tariffs recently. I even wrote about them today, as Trump, in another off-the-cuff comment, said last week that the US could impose tariffs on auto imports by April 2.

For the more challenged among us, it might be tough to walk and chew gum simultaneously. Trump, however, has no problem signing executive orders while at the same time barking out possible new ones. A rare talent, indeed.

Shaking things up

When President Trump first proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and then gave them a 30-day reprieve, a common opinion was that this was a negotiating tactic ahead of the USMCA periodic review set for 2026.

As many have probably already read, there have been unverified rumors that Trump was weighing pulling the US out of NATO. Far-fetched? Perhaps. But this follows removing it from the Paris Climate Agreement and withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO). Even unverified rumors can pick up steam when the president has proven himself a maverick in so many other cases.

NATO has been the backbone of the post-World War II order in the West. The USMCA agreement, however, was put together by Trump 1.0 and went into effect on July 1, 2020. What I’m hinting at here is if one of the cornerstones of life since the second half of the 20th century could be called into question – even in error – what is the lasting validity of an agreement from 2020?

If tariff after tariff is placed on our neighbors north and south, perhaps it’s not the “agreement” that has to be reviewed, but our entire trading relationship re-evaluated.

It appears this is what the Trump administration is doing with its “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” for trade. Before “reciprocal tariffs” would be applied, the trading relationship with each US trading partner would be assessed. Therefore, geographic proximity to the US, or whether the country was friend or foe, would not affect whether tariffs come into play. It’s all up for grabs.

Get ready for jobs

In my article today, I mention a Fox News piece where Trump says the tariffs will “flood” the US with jobs.

And with the new Section 232 targeting downstream products as well, as mentioned in Laura Miller’s article, chances are we won’t have to wait too long before we start seeing the effects all along the steel supply chain.

Will there be a manufacturing renaissance in the US? Will foreign firms flock to build factories here to bypass tariffs? Or will it all prove to be a mirage with disastrous, unforeseen consequences?

To the moon, prices

In the old days at the ballparks, someone was in charge of manually changing the score. If that score were steel prices in the back half of 2024, that fellow could’ve had his legs kicked up on his desk and taken a snooze.

This week… the stadium might’ve needed to hire another couple of guys ’cause the first guy had a heart attack.

What I’m trying to say is prices are moving up, fast. And let’s just say the term “panic buying” has definitely entered the chat.

Just check out this week’s pricing article here.

So, less than a month into Trump 2.0, we already have specific steel and aluminum tariffs that kick in on March 12. How will they play with the other tariffs already announced or that will be announced? We can’t be sure. But the market is moving.

What we do know is that even if the tariffs haven’t come into force yet, things have gone from theory to practice VERY quickly. And they don’t show any signs of slowing down soon. So bookmark Trump’s Truth Social account, follow SMU for the latest updates, and keep your eye up on the scoreboard.