Steel market chatter this week

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How do you expect steel prices to trend over the next three months?

“I think we’re going to see some immediate-term craziness (price spikes). Whether that lasts will depend on if ‘real’ demand picks up or not.”

“Up, up, and up.”

“Prices in the next two months are up, scrap was the early driver, but tariffs may determine how much more they can run up, before we see relief in the third month potentially.”

“Upward pressure. Scrap pricing and availability. Tariffs. Mill outages. Improving demand. Mills losing money.”

“Up due to rising scrap and other inputs. However, tariff contagion will exacerbate the rise at least near term.”

“They will rise by 20% due to demand increasing and supply tightening.”

“Rising, due to uncertainty on Trump effects.”

“Moving up now. Some mills have paused quoting in the short term. We expect quick medium size increases for at least the next couple of months.”

“We will see a steady flow of increases.”

“I suspect they will increase with the announcement of new tariffs by the new administration.”

“Up pushed by tariffs and improving demand.”

“Plate will go up.”

“Trending up.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is improving, automotive is pulling well versus Q4, contract business is pulling well, most likely driven by some restocking to beat higher prices.”

“Increased immensely in the last 30 days.”

“Improving as service centers restock. However, tariff contagion and rapid-fire price announcements will inflate the real demand picture.”

“Improving, interest rates are falling or stable and overall demand is increasing in the construction market.”

“Overall improving, led by the energy segment.”

“Improving; every customer reporting January demand was better than expected.”

“Improving slightly.”

“Slight improvement, but unclear if supported by fundamental end use demand.”

“Slightly improving (seasonal).”

“Stable, but getting a lot of calls about increases due to the tariffs.”

“Stable.”

“Still flat.”

“Demand is okay-ish. I think we’re seeing folks panic buy a bit, but actual demand is stable-to-poor.”

“Stable but at a new lower level.”

“Demand has been declining, but we expect buyers to come off the sidelines and create a temporary improvement due to market dynamics and not necessarily actual demand.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower at the moment and buyers are still working off of inventory commitments from late last year.”

“Slower, but orders have been improving so we expect to begin going through inventory faster.”

“Slower, end-use demand is down.”

“Inventory is moving pretty slow right now.”

“Slower.” – Five respondents

“About the same but the announced tariffs will help.”

“About the same at this point in time.”

“Same, still not seeing a robust order book.”

“Faster, less in all components of the supply chain.”

“Faster with the pivot to ‘beat the next increase or tariff’.”

“Faster, mainly due to increasing demand.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Not attractive. Pricing is too high to have to wait four months for material in an increasing market.”

“Not yet… price spread, lead time, and potential tariffs.”

“No, you do not know the real cost.”

“Imports are a huge question mark right now just based on the tariff news.”

“With tariffs unknown, imports are not attractive.”

“Less attractive with tariff uncertainty.”

“Unattractive due to significant risk buying long lead time imports.”

“No due to tariffs and increased logistics costs.”

“Not for the time being.”

“Not attractive – our customers require domestic.”

“They have been, but tariffs may affect this.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Will there be a new tariff exclusion process?”

“Mill outages.”

“Mill lead times seem to be moving out faster than advertised.”

“Can the manufacturing space absorb the recent whipsaw rise in prices, or will it ultimately stall the recent gains?”

“More service center consolidation.”

“OEM reshoring from Mexico.”

“Evraz sale in North America.”

“Inflation risk and interest rates as headwinds for future planning.”

“Foreign pig iron availability issues.”

“Australian mining challenges due to weather.”