Nucor posts lower Q4'24 profit, hints at better times - and more import restrictions - in '25

Nucor Corp. posted sharply lower fourth-quarter earnings on Monday, driven in part by lower average selling prices at its steel mills.

The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker also warned that first-quarter results might not be much better in commentary released with earnings data.

That’s likely because much of the company’s business is based on contracts, which follow spot prices on a lag. Recall that spot prices remained low throughout Q4’24. Those prices are now rolling through to Q1’25 contracts.

But Nucor said that it expected better times later in 2025. It also hinted at the possibility of ramped-up trade restrictions – including more stringent Section 232 tariffs.

“While steel demand softened throughout 2024, market conditions are starting to improve and should gain momentum as we work our way into 2025,” Nucor Chair, President, and CEO Leon Topalian said in a statement.

“The US economy is still on the front end of several steel-intensive megatrends, and as America’s largest and most diversified steel producer, Nucor is well positioned to supply those needs,” Topalian added.

By the numbers

Nucor recorded Q4’24 profits of $287 million, down 63% from $785 million in Q4’23, on revenue that fell 8.2% to $7.08 billion over the same period. (See chart above.)

The company recorded a capacity utilization rate of 74% in Q4’24, the same rate it ran at a year earlier.

Shipment data is in the chart below. Note that plate shipments rose 35% year over year. That might reflect Nucor ramping up its new plate mill in Brandenburg, Ky.

Trade and tariffs

Nucor in prior calls has stressed the need for “fair trade.”

In its Q3 earnings, for example, which were released before election day, Nucor focused on the coated trade petition. The steelmaker also noted that Section 232 tariffs on imported steel were supported by both Republican and Democratic administrations.

In its Q4 results, Nucor (as you can see in the slide below) zeroed in on Section 232.

Nucor said that the US imported 29.1 million short tons of steel in 2024, of which only 18% were subject to full Section 232 tariffs of 25%. It noted that 26% of that total – namely, material from Argentina, Brazil, and South Korea – was subject to an absolute quota in exchange for exemption from the 25% tariff.

Nucor, in addition, pointed out that 20% of total steel imports into the US were under tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) negotiated by the Biden administration. Those “soft” quotas with the EU, Japan, and the UK mean steel will be hit with the 25% tariff only if volumes exceed certain quota thresholds.

And 36% of steel imported to the US – namely, material from Canada, Mexico, Australia, and Ukraine – is entirely exempt from Section 232, facing neither tariffs nor quotas.

Nucor also said it wanted lawmakers to address “import surges” not only from Mexico (which has long been subject to US politicians’ scrutiny) but also from Canada. The company also suggested that US officials “terminate alternative arrangements” and “apply tariffs” instead.

Why it matters: Trump is also talking trade and tariffs

The rhetoric from Nucor is notable because it roughly squares with market chatter that President Trump could act as soon as this week when it comes to trade and tariffs.

Since November, Trump has threatened to apply 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico. And on Inauguration Day last week, he threatened to impose them as soon as Saturday, Feb. 1.

Rumors have gained steam this week that the president might look to more sector-specific measures, such as Section 232, as well. And some of that chatter has focused on cutting back or eliminating waivers to the 25% tariff – including potentially reducing or eliminating quotas.

Indeed, President Trump in a speech to House Republicans on Monday evening in Miami said the word tariff more than two dozen times.

“We are going to immediately install massive tariffs. And other sanctions. But the tariffs, I told you, the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” Trump said, echoing a campaign talking point.

Trump said he was considering tariffs on everything from pharmaceuticals and semiconductors to steel and vehicles made in Mexico.

In case anyone missed the point, he added, “I will also be … placing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper. We have to bring production back to our country.”

You can see Trump’s full remarks on C-SPAN.