SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: HR, CR and plate lead times up, coated products down

Written by Brett Linton

January 23, 2025

Steel mill lead times were mixed across the sheet and plate products SMU tracks, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Following months of stability, we saw extensions this week in hot rolled, cold rolled, and plate lead times compared to early-January levels. Meanwhile, lead times on coated products edged lower and are now at some of the shortest levels seen in months. Despite these movements, current production times remain at or near historical lows for both sheet and plate products.

The average lead time for hot-rolled steel has increased to five weeks. Tandem product production times are all hovering around six and a half weeks. Average plate lead times have risen to four and a half weeks.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent trends.

Compared to our Jan. 8 market check, several of our lead time ranges have changed this week:

  • Hot rolled: Our range narrowed from three to seven weeks to four to six weeks.
  • Cold rolled and galvanized: The shortest lead time in both ranges declined from five weeks to four weeks.
  • Galvalume: The shortest lead time in our range fell from six weeks to four weeks.

Survey says

Just over half of the respondents we surveyed this week foresee longer lead times two months from now (51%), slightly lower than our early-January crowd. Nearly as many buyers expect production times to hold steady, now at 47% vs. 42% two weeks prior. The small remainder (3%) believe lead times could contract further.

We also asked buyers to comment on the current state of mill production times. Most respondents (53%) think lead times are within typical levels. Almost as many (46%) felt they are shorter than normal. Just 2% of respondents said that lead times are longer than usual.

What respondents are saying:

“There remains an excess supply.”

“There’s more room for lead times to extend than contract.”

“Lead times are still so short domestically. Unless “‘The Don’ puts up the walls against Canadian and Mexican imports, they’ll remain short.”

“Nowhere to go but up from here.”

“Seasonal demand bump again.”

“Extending [two months from now], but I don’t feel it will be much with plenty of supply available for what I feel will be improved demand.”

“I think lead times will extend in the next month and then settle down.”

“Lead times will extend as mills book higher levels.”

To better highlight trends and smooth out variability in our biweekly data, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. Through Jan. 22, 3MMA lead times for both sheet and plate products saw little movement. Overall, 3MMA lead times have trended lower since the start of 2024, flattening out in recent months and remaining at or near one-year lows.

The hot rolled 3MMA is now at 4.77 weeks, cold rolled at 6.62 weeks, galvanized at 6.72 weeks, Galvalume at 7.01 weeks, and plate at 4.04 weeks.

Figure 2 highlights lead time movements since the start of 2020.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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