Steel market chatter this week

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Steel prices are steady. How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I would expect prices to trend up with buyers back from the holidays and demand returning from the holiday slowdown. Also scrap increasing and lead times moving back out.”

“Demand will increase and supply will be less, with pricing moving up by 10% over the next few months.”

“Prices are going up! Get your orders in! Sooner than later!”

“I believe this market will start trending upwards.”

“Up if Trump imposes the 25% duty on Mexican and Canadian steel.”

“Up, irrational exuberance.”

“I expect plate to go up.”

“Up. Large energy projects, import uncertainty.”

“Slight uptick in price as long as the economy gets better.”

“I anticipate much of the same in terms of mill pricing over the next 30-45 days. I think prices will start to steadily improve as the issues with tariffs are resolved.”

“Up somewhat, but no ‘Trump jump’.”

“Steady until Trump policies kick in.”

“Slowly move up as demand returns.”

“I expect demand to pick up to some degree and buyers to come off the sidelines, which will lead to the ability for mills to increase prices the first half of the year. I don’t expect a steep increase.”

“Slowly move up as demand returns.”

“Hard to say. There is really no reason for them not to drift lower other than that they’re already “low enough.” We just aren’t banking on a rebound in demand in earnest until Q3.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“It appears to be picking up. Activity is getting a bit better.”

“Demand is improving with the holidays behind us, but buyers are still being cautious.”

“Improving.”

“Demand is overall pretty steady, but I anticipate year over year to be a bit better than 2024.”

“Stable to improving.”

“Overall stable with pockets of improvement.”

“Stable but tariffs are the wild card.”

“Stable for this time of year.”

“Stable.”

“Stable but a lower level.”

“Stable but low.”

“Demand is weak and flat now, but I think it could increase.”

“Demand is still poor. All of the BS about “it’ll turn after the election” has been exactly that: BS.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, nobody is making large purchases at this time. Interest rates are too high.”

“I would say it is still a bit slower than last year, as automotive is down from the prior year with Stellantis being softer.”

“A little slower than last year.”

“Slower due to low demand.”

“Much slower.”

“Slower… We haven’t seen the pick up yet.”

“Moving slower than expected so far.”

“Slower, high interest rates and buyers with a wait-and-see attitude.”

“The same or slightly slower.”

“Inventory is moving about the same, but we’re holding far less (on purpose).”

“Day to day, but generally flat movement year over year.”

“Same.”

“Faster. Both semi-finished and finished inventories at all locations of the supply chain have been reduced.”

“Too early to tell.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“No, due to logistics time and cost land the products roughly equal to domestic pricing.”

“No, prices aren’t that great and tariffs may be coming.”

“Not seeing the value in imports with the uncertainty in domestic prices or the unknown on tariffs.”

“Imports not attractive for multiple reasons.”

“Imports not attractive due to customer requirements for domestic material.”

“No, not worth the risk of more duties.”

“Imports are risky due to uncertainty, and prices are not that attractive. Yet if you expect prices to increase, then it might be a good bet to buy now as pricing is not going to go down much and should rise rapidly this coming year.”

“Somewhat more attractive, but not that much available.”

“Import pricing is just fine, but the lead times are scary versus domestic material, especially with demand continuing to be so crappy.”

“Imports are always more attractive.”

“They are getting there. The Euro is in favor of importers of European steel.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“How bad steel tariffs will hurt manufacturing and end users unless the tariffs are applied to all products especially finished products, but that will increase costs, etc.”

“If Cliffs buys U.S. Steel, it will be very bad for the consumer to only have one integrated producer. Cliffs does not have the capital to upgrade U.S. Steel plants.”

“So many unknowns with Trump getting ready to take office, could Canada and Mexico shipments be subject to tariffs very soon?”

“Not a lot of talk about carbon initiatives and the pricing impact they will have going forward. Perhaps it is because the implementation phase of CBAM has not become apparent just yet.”

“Tariffs to Canada and Mexico.”

“North Carolina (Hurricane) and Southern California (Fires) rebuilding requirements and its impact on steel.”

“Cost of electricity as steel mills move more to green technology and electric arc furnaces. What will be the cost of electricity in the future?”

“AHMSA has somewhat shaken out, but what about Evraz NA. Likewise, there has been a nice run of SSC M&A activity; could we see more (and from the “big boys” too)?!”

“Evraz future? Algoma’s participation in the US market?”