Final Thoughts

As is typically the case, December is winding down rather quietly. Not a lot of fanfare but well wishes galore for what the new year will bring.

And while most feel rather positive about what Q1’25 might bring, there is still growing concern around President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs. What’s a negotiation tactic vs. policy, and what they might mean for the economy, the steel sector, and your business?

As I’ve spoken with sources over the past few weeks, one thing seems evident: The market is in somewhat of a trough. Prices have been bouncing along the bottom even as mills try to prop them up. But there’s not enough demand for prices to rise, and no real reason for them to fall either because lower prices haven’t been stimulating buying.

So what’s in your stocking for 2025?

Better demand is on everyone’s list

From our latest survey results, 22% of respondents still note that demand is declining, though 65% continue to say that demand is stable, and the balance are seeing demand on the rise. While demand has been declining for some time, there seems to be a bit of a shift for many of you: The present slowness is in line with the calm of the holidays – nothing out of the ordinary.

Here’s what some of you had to say:

“Slow now during the holiday slowdown.”

“Normal end of year slowdowns. Albeit at a low level.”

“Declining, but it is the season and slightly above average for December.”

“It is unchanged, softer than last year and light, but that is not new.”

“Demand is ‘OK,’ which is a reversal from a pretty strong two-thirds of the year.”

“Stable month over month, but slow compared to prior year.”

“Soon improving.”

“Seasonality of our product.”

But that’s not all, there are still a few more sticking points.

Forecasts remain problematic for many

More than one-third of respondents don’t expect to meet forecast in December, a trend we’ve seen since the beginning of Q2. But, still, more than half of the respondents met forecast last month.

“Will meet a very meager forecast.”

“Market is still slow and pricing decline.”

“We have remained conservative.”

“Hoping.”

“I think this will be back-to-back months of not meeting forecast, the first two of the year.”

“Adjusted accordingly.”

Pushback on mills’ firm pricing stance?

Surprisingly, mills haven’t been very successful in finding willing buyers at higher levels. And the holiday slowdown might have found some eager sellers, but, overall, service center survey respondents were holding prices flat.

While mills have not been able to yield their “pricing power” since midway through Q3, some inventory jostling here and there maintained the status quo. Prices have indeed – though at a slightly lower level – matched the recent mill pricing stability.

Q1’25 demand still an enigma?

While buying patterns remain largely cautious – to the tune of 62% to 65% – there was a common thread between service center and manufacturer (OEM) buying, according to our most recent data: Inventory doubting.

What stands out? There was a clear shift with both service centers and OEMs trying to prognosticate and position themselves for Q1’25 demand. As December wound down, buyers were either trying to unload some volume or build back up. Still, manufacturers remain less interested in carrying inventory.

That’s just some of the interesting data in our latest survey results, so do ensure you look through them all.

Tampa Steel Conference

Registrations have topped 300 for the 2025 Tampa Steel Conference. This holiday season, why not give yourself the gift that keeps on giving: a front-row seat to the steel industry’s most critical conversations, all going down in Tampa this February?

The agenda will deliver six fireside chats and 20-plus expert speakers addressing critical industry topics, including Trump, trade, and tariffs. You can learn more about the event and register here.

As always, all of us here at Steel Market Update wish you and your loved ones a safe and happy holidays! We thank you for your business and support these past 19 years. Cheers to a blessed new year for us all!

Warmest wishes from the SMU team,
Michael Cowden, David Schollaert, Brett Linton, Laura Miller, Ethan Bernard, Stephanie Ritenbaugh, Jill Waldman, Kaylee Turner, and Luis Corona.