Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by Brett Linton & Ethan Bernard
December 19, 2024
What would you do if you had a time machine? Would you lobby Ford to keep the F-150 made of steel? Would you become the most successful purchasing manager in steel history, with a keen knack for being one step ahead of price volatility? Or would you go forward, maybe hit up 2050 to see how all the fuss turned out with those carbon neutral targets?
Well, here at SMU, we can’t go forward. But we can look back. So as we wind down for the final two issues of 2024, we’re going to peer into the rearview of Decembers past: one year ago, five years ago, 10 years ago, and 100 years ago. Let’s take a look.
December 2023
Of course, the big news from December last year was Nippon Steel’s play for U.S. Steel. That was to the tune of a $14.9-billion offer. (You can find our original article here.)
One year later, and this one is still very much with us. The US Committee on Foreign Investment’s (CFIUS) national security review decision is expected any day now. So this could be one we close the book on in 2024. Or, we just might get thrown a curveball.
A takeaway for me is just how fast the received wisdom can change on a subject. The transaction went from being regarded as a nearly sure thing to high skepticism that it would be OK’d. Still, 2024 was quite a political year and it’s hard to imagine that didn’t affect the calculus of how the deal would pan out.
December 2019
Searching through SMU’s December 2019 archives, I found this timely Dec. 22, 2019, piece from trade attorney and current SMU columnist Lewis Leibowitz: “Leibowitz on Trade: House Votes to Approve USMCA.”
He speaks of the “protectionist” impulses in USMCA as compared to its predecessor, NAFTA.
With all the new talks of additional tariffs under Trump 2.0, and a review of the USMCA set for 2026, we’ll see what changes will come to the agreement. How will they affect the North American trading bloc?
The article’s conclusion stands out to me in particular, but perhaps in ways the author didn’t originally intend:
“I think we are in for an eventful 2020. I look forward to discussing the issues with you over the coming year.”
Leibowitz wrote that before most people had any familiarity with the Chinese city of Wuhan.
An eventful 2020, indeed!
Even further back…
And now for a real sense of history, I will turn over the reins to SMU Senior Analyst Brett Linton. He started with SMU way back in 2010, so history is a bit of his specialty.
December 2014
Ten years ago, steel prices were also gradually trickling lower. In the last week of December 2014, our hot-rolled coil average price dropped to a year-and-a-half low of $600 per short ton (st). Adjusted for inflation, that’s about $790/st more expensive than the prices we are seeing today!
100 years ago!
Now, if we take a trip back a whole century, our friend Google says that hot-rolled steel prices were in the ballpark of $50/st in 1924. That’s the equivalent of paying about $890/st in today’s dollars.
2025?
With Jan. 1 just around the corner, this next year remains unwritten. Here at SMU, we’re hoping it’s a prosperous one and full of abundance for all of you!
We thank you for your continued interest in Steel Market Update!
Brett Linton
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Ethan Bernard
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The Community Chat last Wednesday with ITR economist Taylor St. Germain is worth listening to if you couldn’t tune in live. You can find the replay and Taylor’s slide deck here. You can also find SMU reporter Stephanie Ritenbaugh’s writeup of the webinar here. Taylor is Alan Beaulieu’s protégé at ITR. Many of you know Alan from his talks at SMU Steel Summit. I found Taylor’s analysis just as insightful as Alan’s.
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It’s been another week of torrid speculation when it comes Trump and tariffs. And another week of mostly flat price movement when it comes to steel sheet and plate. As far as Trump and tariffs go, I think I might have lost track. We've potentially got 10% blanket tariffs on imports from China, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 100% tariffs on the BRICs, and 200% on Caterpillar. Canada might be the 51st state. Mexico could be the 52nd state. But all can be resolved if you stop by Mar-a-Lago and kiss the ring?