Features
Bell on Trump: Bold statements can lead to solutions
Written by Ethan Bernard
December 10, 2024
With just over a month to go until Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, President-elect Donald Trump has already signaled some of his policy choices that will affect the steel industry. Mainly tariffs. Yes, tariffs.
From USMCA partners, to BRICS, to China, tariffs will be playing a key part in Trump’s second administration. As trade policy in general is central to the steel industry, I sat down with Philip K. Bell, president of the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) recently to discuss what he thought might be on the horizon with Trump 2.0.
Being along the Beltway and going to the recent OECD meeting in Paris, Bell has had a front-row seat to see how policy is shaping up, and how the rest of the world is responding.
In fact, the SMA recently sent off a pro-steel policy five-point plan to the new Trump team.
When asked what the impetus was behind it, Bell said, “We want to help the incoming administration understand what’s important to domestic steel producers on day one.”
He continued that “we really wanted to focus on trade policy, regulatory certainty, and ensuring that we can continue the investment and job creation that we’ve embarked on over the last several years.”
Bell noted that “we’re highly confident that the administration got our message and that it’s going to resonate with them.”
Differences between Biden, Trump
With a Republican administration replacing a Democratic one, there are obviously going to be changes.
“Well, I think the key difference will be that the president-elect has clearly shown that he’s serious about tariffs, that he’s consistent about tariffs, and he’s willing to use tariffs in a way that will bring people to the table and to potentially deal with a variety of issues,” Bell said.
“I also think that you’re going to see more swift action, more decisive action, an action that’s clear and easy to understand,” he added.
Bell noted that there could also be an emphasis on “regulatory certainty,” to spur investment; on tax policy, to spur economic growth; on trade, especially enforcement of US trade laws; and on getting US trading partners and other countries “to get serious about market-distorting behavior.”
USMCA
The USMCA agreement, brought into law under the first Trump administration, is under review in 2026. Will there be big changes?
“Well, I think with any kind of multilateral agreement like the USMCA, it’s good to have periodic review,” Bell said.
“And I think what we’re going to do in these upcoming reviews is make sure that our trading partners in Canada and Mexico are truly living up to the spirit of the USMCA,” he added.
It’s important the partners coordinate together to curb issues such as transshipment, dumping, and also a “loose interpretation of what melted and poured means in the USMCA region,” he said.
China?
Bell said the president-elect should continue to be tough on China, the world’s largest steel producer.
“I think that he’s already looking at increasing tariffs on China, and quite frankly, his approach is starting to gain traction around the world,” Bell said. “He needs to increase the steel tariffs.”
Bell also said it’s time for other countries in the developed world that do business with China “to really look at their trade-distorting practices and make sure that they’re not aiding and abetting them.”
Bold statements?
Just today on his Truth Social feed, Trump referred to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada.” In short, Trump is no stranger to bold, provocative statements. But is there a method behind it?
“I think one of the reasons for the bold statements is to really get people at the table and get them to be serious about their approach to trade policy,” Bell said
“And you already saw Justin Trudeau travel to Mar-a-Lago to meet with the president-elect to discuss trade. And I actually think some progress was made there,” he added.
Also, Bell noted that the Biden administration was no stranger to bold statements as well. He cited the example of Biden threatening reinstatement of Section 232 tariffs on Mexico because of a “surge” of Mexican steel imports to the US.
Bell said as a result of that tough talk, through August of this year, there have been no imports from Mexico reported with an unidentified country of origin, thus holding the country to stricter melt-and-pour requirements.
Ultimately, Bell said, “Bold statements can actually lead to solutions.”
Four years from now?
Where would Bell like to be four years from now when this administration draws to a close?
“First, I want to see an administration that truly believes in strong trade law enforcement and coherent trade policy,” Bell said.
“Second, I want our members to be able to complete the almost $20 billion of investment that’s either been announced underway or near completion,” he continued.
Bell said the third thing would be to keep progressing further as “a domestic steel industry that is strong, that is rationalized, and that is efficient.”
He concluded: “I think we have a unique opportunity under the incoming administration to carry that forward.”
Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in Features
Final Thoughts
It's that time of year again. You know, that time when people wonder if those things are drones in New Jersey or if the aliens are ready to come onto the stage just in time for Inauguration Day. What will that do for steel price volatility? In any case, the SMU team finds itself in Pittsburgh this week.
HVAC equipment shipments healthy through October
Shipments of heating and cooling equipment were stable from September to October, AHRI said.
AISI: Raw steel production edges lower, remains weak
Domestic production remains significantly low compared to levels recorded earlier in the year.
Final Thoughts
The Community Chat last Wednesday with ITR economist Taylor St. Germain is worth listening to if you couldn’t tune in live. You can find the replay and Taylor’s slide deck here. You can also find SMU reporter Stephanie Ritenbaugh’s writeup of the webinar here. Taylor is Alan Beaulieu’s protégé at ITR. Many of you know Alan from his talks at SMU Steel Summit. I found Taylor’s analysis just as insightful as Alan’s.
Leibowitz on trade: Why is protectionism so popular?
The world has had a few shocks recently. The CEO of a major health insurance company was gunned down in Manhattan. The 50-year Assad dynasty in Syria was pushed out less than two weeks after rebels started an offensive. And President-elect Trump is promising tariffs on everything a month before he takes office. But one shock has been taking place for a lot longer than the last few weeks. The 70-year consensus on trade hasn’t just been challenged. It’s been repudiated.