Steel market chatter this week

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Steel prices are mostly steady. How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I expect prices to start increasing.”

“Skyrocket with companies trying to get ahead of tariffs and limited import options.”

“Relatively flat until the new year. Once budgets reset, believe it trends upwards significantly.”

“Prices will rise but tempered by demand and business conditions.”

“Slowly up as election results drive optimism and SSCs slowly restock.”

“Plate prices will begin to climb Q1’25 for several reasons, as plate has bottomed out.”

“It appears mill lead times are still healthy and we will see prices trend up in the next month, most likely before they are met with some pressure to settle back down.”

“They might move up because of the expectation of more protection for US steel companies. But demand is just not there yet.”

“Pricing will be stable to year-end and will increase with demand in Q1 due to interest rates are coming down.”

“Still going to be soft. Most automakers still have high inventory.”

“Stay steady, it will take some time for the new admin to start boosting the economy.”

“Steady.”

“Stable.”

“I would have said with 100% confidence that pricing will drift lower into the low-$600/ton range for HRC. But with the events of last week being so decisive, I’m not so sure anymore.”

Is demand improving, declining, or stable?

“Stable due to weak demand.”

“Stable to declining, demand isn’t there.”

“Mixed bag, call it overall a ‘soft stable.’”

“Stable.”

“Demand this past week was sluggish.”

“Demand is weak and stable at a lower level.”

“Stable, but demand will likely spike as a result of tariffs.”

“Demand remains solid for us, but we’re an outlier. Every SSC and mill we talk to is slow.”

“Currently stable for plate, demand will increase balance of this year and especially Q1-Q2 2025.”

“Demand is improving, now with the election over, mill order books have seen an increase and December HRC spot is closed in most areas.”

“Improving.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving slower, with the pause on business in waiting for the election, the question becomes when do we see an uptick now that the election is over.”

“Slower, lack of consistent orders.”

“A bit slower.”

“Slower, December looks to be very soft with OEM auto plants taking 1–2-week shutdowns.”

“Slower with soft demand, but turning faster with compressed lead times.”

“Slower due to slow demand and sales.”

“Mixed, some companies are desperate to move tons before the end of the year and thrown on crazy prices.”

“Moving about the same.”

“Steady.”

“Inventory is going at a good clip, but only because our levels are so low (by design).”

“Picking up.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“No, due to tariff risk and logistics costs making landed cost higher than domestic.”

“No, not enough spread and too long lead time.”

“No, too high.”

“Less attractive due to tariffs and lead times.”

“Imports are not that attractive but depends on products and mill. Non-Section-232 countries are more attractive and coated including pre painted are most attractive.”

“With the Euro declining vs. US dollar, they are getting there.”

“I think import pricing is fine, but the lead times are sure tough – especially when the domestics are so hungry and running such short lead times.”

“Yes, however lead time isn’t attractive, compared to the minimal savings and can’t project out that far at this time.”

“I think they will be, but we have to see that the mills can collect the current announced prices. Also, there is concern on what the landscape of tariffs will look like.”

“Imports from favored nations are very attractive.”

“Yes, in limited cases.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Obviously, the election was front-and-center last week. I do think the Nippon/USS deal goes through now. It is just good business.”

“Feels like everyone is talking and reacting… perhaps we should quiet the noise and listen.”

“Are the mills outside of Sinton and Big River really sold out of spot HRC in December?”

“Consolidation of steel mills is ongoing, and the market is becoming tighter with competition.”

“Post-election Trump impact on steel, mostly positive.”

“Tariffs will increase material costs, and eventually it will hurt long-term demand as supply chains readjust.”

“What is happening with Evraz NA? More tariffs coming with Trump? Will Canada mirror them or apply more?”

“AHMSA is now formally bankrupt, which means it now becomes an asset sale. Could become an attractive target.”