Features

September steel exports drop to lowest level of year

November 8, 2024

US steel exports declined in September to their lowest level of the year, according to recently released data from the US Department of Commerce. After rising to a one-year high in August, the volume of steel that exited the country in September fell 10% month on month (m/m) to 760,000 short tons (st).

September exports are 5% less than the average monthly rate of 2024 to date (803,000 st), and 3% less than the same month last year (781,000 st). On an annualized basis, steel exports have trended downward over the last six months but remain strong relative to volumes seen over the past five years.

The majority of steel exported from the US is destined for US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. Just over half of all September steel exports were shipped to Mexico (51%), followed by Canada (40%). Other notable recipients included Brazil, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic at 1% each.

For more detailed export data by product and country, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.

Monthly averages

Looking at steel exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis helps to smooth out monthly fluctuations. After reaching a five-year high of 887,000 st in July 2023, 3MMA export volumes trended downward throughout the end of last year, then partially recovered in the first four months of 2024. Through September, the 3MMA has remained relatively healthy at 807,000 st.

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to further dampen monthly variations and highlight long-term trends. From this perspective, steel exports have generally strengthened since bottoming out in 2020. The 12MMA reached a five-and-a-half year high in February at 805,000 st. The 12MMA has since declined to a 15-month low of 774,000 st through September, though 12MMA rates remain strong compared to historical levels.

Exports by product

Looking specifically at flat-rolled exports, export volumes of five of the six products we track declined from August to September (cold-rolled sheet was the exception, rising to a seven-year high). As seen in Table 1, the biggest changes from August to September occurred in exports of hot-rolled sheet (-21%), plate in coils (-14%), other-metallic coated (-14%), and galvanized sheet (-12%).

Recall that in August, other-metallic coated exports had risen to a two-year high and plate in coil exports had reached a 14-month high.

Compared to levels one year ago, September exports by product were mixed, with three products higher this year, one unchanged, and two lower. Significant year-on-year (y/y) changes were witnessed in cold-rolled sheet exports (+17%) and plate in coils (+8%).

Figure 3 shows a history of exports by product on a 3MMA basis.

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.