Steel market chatter this week

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Steel prices remain largely steady. How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Stay the same. Overall, running with lower inventories until the election results come in. Q4 FOB mill pricing is down.”

“It may go up slightly, but I doubt we will see any large increases and we may still see some decreases. The balance of this year is going to be more of the same.”

“Flat.”

“Not much movement either way.”

“Steady.”

“Flat to slightly down.”

“Who knows… could be a huge run-up. There seems to be growing pent-up demand while we are currently doing what I call skipping across the bottom.”

“Price should be bottoming out soon. Costs are low and should be increasing. Demand is in a holding pattern until after the election.”

“I expect prices to slowly trend up as mills try to establish a bottom. It will not be a slam dunk.”

“I’m expecting increased prices.”

“I feel they will be rising once we start having lead times push into 2025.”

“Plate will be up $100 per ton over the next three months.”

“Slightly upward after the election.”

“Despite the recent increase attempts, we think things will fall from here – demand is just too weak and lead times are just too short.”

“Pricing will move down slightly to year end.”

“Down – slowing economy.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is steady on our end, but the bigger the shop (or SSC), the slower they seem. A lot of folks seem worried still.”

“Stable but far from robust.”

“Stable, other than mill steel out of Canada. Service centers can deliver basic galvanized in a matter of days.”

“Stable.”

“Stable/declining as folks sit on their hands until they understand what way the political winds will blow.”

“Still sluggish. I’d say stable at best.”

“Demand is weak and many are waiting until after the election to make any strong buying decisions.”

“Stable or declining for the balance of the year. Demand will improve as interest rates fall.”

“Declining – slowing economy and high interest rates.”

“Plate demand is stable now, will see an uptick post-election.”

“It will pick up after the election results are clear – whenever that is.”

“Improving.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower – demand is slow and supply is still stable.”

“Slower – we feel due to the same reasons we hear in the market: election, interest rates, etc.”

“Slower until the election is over.”

“Smaller orders shipped more often.”

“Same pace; fair but not at pandemic level.”

“Slightly slower than last year.”

“Trying to hold steady.”

“Inventory is moving faster on our end, but our levels are also much lower (by design).”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Imports are not that attractive due to less price advantage and uncertainty.”

“No, too many unknowns.”

“No, too much risk on [galvanized] quality.”

“No, lead times are too long.”

“No, too much uncertainty at this point.”

“No, spread too thin and US upside not yet substantial enough.”

“Less attractive – trade case and tariff concerns.”

“Our customers require domestic.”

“Imports remain somewhat attractive/on par with domestics, but the lead times are obviously longer.”

“If the Euro declines a bit further, they might. Value-added is already not too shabby.”

“Imports are always more attractively priced.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“What is the fallout to steel if government-backed projects are further delayed or canceled.”

“Mexican HR. By all accounts AHMSA won’t be a factor, but what about Ternium (especially on the West Coast)? And does anyone actually know what is happening with Evraz NA?”

“CORE cases are just not having any effect. No shortage of futures I guess due to more domestic capacity.”

“Why are service centers giving away their index contract discounts….why why why why? Also, nobody downstream needs a price break, almost all goods prices are highest ever and staying or continuing to go up at the endpoint of the supply chain.”

“Force reductions.”

“Certainly not the election.”