Steel market chatter this week

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Steel prices remain largely steady. How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Will be steady until 2025 due to demand, and supply levels will keep pricing from spiking.”

“Should stay flat throughout the balance of the year. Fourth quarter is historically slow, and the election won’t be settled until November.”

“Steady/soft. Demand is not sufficient to impact.”

“We’ve been pretty outspoken about this rally having run out of steam. We think hot rolled will be back in the mid-to-high $600s this month.”

“Mostly flat until mid Q1.”

“Flat.”

“Steady.”

“Steady to slightly up.”

“Flat to slightly up. Probably nothing happening until January.”

“I think buyers try and press down in the next month, but prices in the two months following will increase on the strength of raw material prices, lower inventories, pent-up demand, and lack of imports.”

“Expecting them to gradually increase.”

“Plate will be up.”

“Down, slowing economy and still too much capacity.”

“Down slightly.”

Is demand improving, declining, or stable?

“Stable, but not at a pleasant level.”

“Stable/soft. Pending election, softer manufacturing demand.”

“Stable even though it is down from last year.”

“Stable due to supply levels are still good.”

“Demand remains stable, at best.”

“We haven’t talked to a single service center or mill who is touting an improvement in demand.”

“Stable to declining, buyers are dumb and just driving down inventories because they expect prices to plummet.”

“Declining, slowing economy.”

“Slight decline.”

“Improving.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, slowing economy.”

“Slower than last year.”

“Slower because election season.”

“Slower, with so much uncertainty and the election.”

“Slightly slower.”

“About the same.”

“Steady.”

“Inventory is moving faster for us, but only because we are purposefully keeping little-to-no stock.”

“Appears faster because we are carrying less.”

“Faster as demand has improved from last year.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“For the most part, no, the price gap is not sufficient in a soft price environment.”

“They are not attractive as prices are increasing and lead times are long.”

“Import pricing is just fine, but the lead times are a problem, especially with 2025 right around the corner now.”

“Not yet, and prices in Europe appear to be turning the corner – so even less attractive.”

“No.”

“Pricing is relatively the same as domestic, but domestic is only six weeks vs. 14 weeks from offshore.”

“Import prices are always more attractive.”

“Yes, but more narrow spread.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Inventories are plummeting and imports are not on order.”

“I think there are whispers out there, but I am very concerned with general supply>demand once all of the fall outages unwind. Scary stuff really.”

“Chinese stimulus isn’t lifting their domestic demand and exports from China are down. This will keep global demand muted.”

“Hurricane steel replacement estimates.”

“Evraz North American potential sale of operations.”

“Scrap going up.”