Final Thoughts

Sheet prices might go up or down slightly in any given week. They’re generally lower this week. But despite that dip, HR prices remain around $700 per short ton (st) on average – as has mostly been the case since August. Cold-rolled and coated prices have been $900-950/st on average over that same period, according to SMU’s pricing records.

What the bulls (or bull-ish) are saying

One mill source told me today that, from his perspective, prices should continue to inch higher – especially in the wake of recent trade actions and potential future ones. “The game is turning all domestic on all products, little by little,” he said.

A second Midwest service center source said that the calendar might provide a lift to prices. He pointed out that Christmas and New Year’s fall on Wednesdays, which effectively takes two weeks out of the calendar instead of one.

Recall that last year, the holidays fell on Mondays. In 2022, they landed on Sundays. And in 2021, Saturdays. “With that and the Thanksgiving week, a 7-8 week lead time is quickly approaching 2025 production, which if we might ever see a bump in pricing, that could be it,” he said.

He was referencing cold-rolled and coated lead times. But at Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI), according to lead times posted on Wednesday, HR is out that far at its Sinton, Texas, facility. And its operation in Columbus., Miss., is closed. That squares with some of you who’ve told me: You’re having trouble finding discounts from certain mills even if you have large tons to place. And some of those mills aren’t taking large orders.

It’s starting to sound pretty bullish, right?

What the bears (and bear-ish) are growling

And yet HR futures markets appeared to move lower on Tuesday on news that stimulus from Beijing might not be enough to turn China’s economic prospects around. That sent seaborne iron ore prices lower.

And, closer to home, we keep hearing variations on this theme: Election-related uncertainty is weighing on the market. Polls show it remains historically close, so it’s hard to see that uncertainty going away soon.

And concerns remain on the demand side. That first service center source, we’ll call him Mr. Wonder, said he thinks he could get prices in the low $600s from some of his domestic suppliers if he could cobble together a big enough buy. In the past, the price negotiation was more difficult than finding enough orders to justify a large purchase. Now the reverse is true, he said.

Another service center source said his company had 3.5 months’ supply of inventory on hand, more than he’d like to have – but less than some of his competitors. He pushed back against the idea that the calendar might help steel prices.

As he sees it, mills will be mostly past their maintenance outages by the end of October. That means more supply into the market during what is typically one of the weakest times of the year. And he questioned how active the spot market was at current prices, especially if buyers can mostly tide themselves over with contract tons.

A steel buyer on the plate side, meanwhile, said it’s still tough to find and retain skilled workers – as it was in 2021. But it’s not so much of a struggle to find competitively priced plate, especially with prices at their lowest levels since then.

Some major North American plate mills are in the $800s/st, which makes imports from South Korea and Brazil in the high $700s/st not very competitive. But while prices might finally be manageable, demand is only a fraction of what it had been, he said.

The plate buyer pointed to lead times as short as 2-3 weeks among EAF mills. And among his customers, “I don’t know many who are doing well, doing overtime, or putting on more shifts,” he said.

He pinned that partly on big projects – like offshore wind – not coming to fruition. And partly on high steel prices in the US driving downstream work aboard.

So, which is it: Could prices and demand inflect higher as lead times stretch closer to 2025? Or will prices slip as maintenance outages conclude, on a weaker global economy, and on questions about demand?

Make your voice heard!

I could hazard a guess. But it would be just that. So let us know what you’re seeing in the market.

One of the best ways to do that is by participating in our steel market surveys. So ping us if you’d like to at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

And in the meantime, thanks to all of you for your continued business. We really do appreciate it.