Steel market chatter this week

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Steel prices are still firm. How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Little up, a little down, unless something happens in the industry to push the price higher.”

“Stay firm. Mills can now manage.”

“Everything is very slow now.”

“Zig and zag, but no real movement until after the elections for sure.”

“We don’t truly see them as ‘firm.’ We haven’t been big believers in this mini-rally and we don’t see things going much higher from here.”

“About the same through 2024.”

“I think prices peak in the next couple of weeks and then fall under pressure during the holidays.”

“Relatively flat overall.”

“Flat to slightly down, unless more capacity is taken out.”

“HR will be sideways to up slightly on continued soft demand and controlled supply.  Plate will be down at least one more time in 2024 then stable into Q1’25. Demand just isn’t there for plate, and supply is good.”

“Plate will be flat to maybe down slightly but expected to climb in Q4.”

“Slight migrating down for plates.”

“Capacity reductions will allow prices to inch up.”

“Prices will slowly gain momentum – many moving parts within the domestic mills.”

Is demand improving, declining, or stable?

“Still sluggish but I feel that will change with Cliffs idling a blast furnace.”

“Declining.”

“Plate is stable to slight decline.”

“Stable but at a relatively low level.”

“Somewhat stable.”

“Stable with pockets of improvement.”

“Demand is stable to declining, more driven by buyers reducing inventory on the expectation that prices will fall.”

“Declining slowly as markets wait on election and Fed rate cuts.”

“Increasing slightly due to interest rates coming down.”

“Demand is strong for us, but we are taking market share from more established folks. Everyone we talk to is still very slow.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower right now as buyers expect the worst.”

“Slower, high interest rates and slowing economy.”

“Slower, customers are still reluctant to place orders.”

“Slower with less demand.”

“Slower due to slower overall demand than last year.”

“Slower due to uncertainty in the plate market.”

“Inventory is moving at a good clip, but we also aren’t stocking much extra. Very hand-to-mouth, by design.”

“About the same.”

“Steady.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“No, market is already at a very low point; it can only go up.”

“No, price gap is too thin in soft demand environment.”

“Not attractive overall.”

“Nope.”

“Imports are not until a preliminary ruling from ITC.”

“Not attractive based on what buyers expect to happen with prices in the US.”

“Getting there. A bit up in domestic and a bit more down in Europe, and we are there.”

“Yes, except China with additional tariffs. Landed cost is now cheaper than domestic but will not hit inventories for another couple months.”

“If you can stomach the lead time, you can definitely find cheaper imports (versus domestics).”

“Imports are priced better than domestic.”

“Yes, but long lead times.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Are inventories getting too low?”

“The ridiculousness of allowing Brazilian slabs and HRC to come into the USA [quota], but to block Mexican HRC made with those same Brazilian slabs.”

“Tariffs from US and Canada on Chinese steel that will take effect Oct. 1.”

“I still expect we’ll continue to see more consolidation on the service center side. This hasn’t been a great year, obviously, and the big regional players might be looking to get out.”

“Lack of imports for balance of the year.”

“Bouncing around projections and regulations along with Biden administration secretly moving duties upwards.”

“Real demand if the govt. backed/funded jobs were delayed, scaled back, or removed.”

“Evraz status.”