SMU Data and Models
SMU survey: Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices rebound
Written by Brett Linton
July 19, 2024
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both saw improvement this week. Current Sentiment ticked higher but remains near the four-year low seen earlier this month. Future Sentiment continues to indicate that buyers are optimistic for future business conditions.
Every other week, we poll steel buyers about their companies’ chances of success in the current market as well as three to six months down the road. We use this information to calculate our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index and our Future Sentiment Index, which we have been tracking since 2008.
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rose to +40 this week, up six points from two weeks prior (Figure 1). Although it improved from early-July, this week’s measure remains the second-lowest reading seen in nearly four years.
SMU’s Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures buyers’ feelings about business conditions three to six months in the future. The index increased five points this week to +66 (Figure 2). Future Sentiment remains higher than readings seen this time last year.
Measured as a three-month moving average, buyers sentiment declined further this week. The Current Sentiment 3MMA slipped almost five points to +45.82, now the lowest reading recorded since September 2020. This week’s Future Sentiment 3MMA fell less than one point to a three-month low of +64.50 (Figure 3).
What SMU survey respondents had to say:
“With pricing dropping as it is, it’s more difficult to be profitable, but we should be OK.”
“At some point we need prices to stabilize or recover since inventory has lost value all year.”
“If prices probably stabilize or rise, we’ll be more successful/profitable.”
“This could be a long cycle of very low demand.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. A link to our methodology is here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Brett Linton
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