Steel Prices
SMU price ranges: Sheet still declining, bottom elusive
Written by Brett Linton & David Schollaert
July 2, 2024
US sheet prices moved lower again this week, continuing a trend seen since early April. The slowdown aligns with the typical summer doldrums, when lax demand and shorter lead times often take center stage.
The current market is also characterized by ample supply and concerns about restocking – especially with few signs of a bottom yet in sight, sources said.
SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price stands at $665 per short ton (st) on average this week, down $5/st from last week. Hot band has dropped $180/st from a recent high of $845/st in early April and is nearing a 10-month low.
The high end of our HR range is $710/st, while the low end is $620/st. Spot demand has been noticeably quieter this week. That’s not unusual ahead of the Fourth of July holiday.
To the surprise of some, Nucor lowered its weekly published HR spot price by $10/st on Monday to $670/st. A sideways move had been the consensus. And some sources expect little spot buying to result from lower mill tags.
The trend for tandem products was similar, though declines were more pronounced. Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices were down $10/st week over week (w/w) to $965/st on average. Galvanized and Galvalume base prices were also down w/w to $940/st (-$10/st) and $960/st (-$20/st), respectively.
Our plate price also moved lower this week, following Nucor’s $120-per-ton price cut announced on Monday with the opening of its August order book. Of particular concern for plate is shrinking lead times. Some mills were reportedly still trying to find buyers to fill their July order books.
SMU’s momentum indicators continue to point lower.
Hot-rolled coil
The SMU price range is $620-710/st, averaging $665/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is unchanged w/w, while the top end is down $10/st. Our overall average is down $5/st w/w. Our price momentum indicator for HR remains pointing lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.
Hot rolled lead times range from 3-6 weeks, averaging 4.6 weeks as of our June 19 market survey.
Cold-rolled coil
The SMU price range is $920–1,010/st, averaging $965/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is unchanged w/w, while the top end is down $20/st. Our overall average is down $10/st w/w. Our price momentum indicator for CR remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.
Cold rolled lead times range from 4-9 weeks, averaging 6.7 weeks in our latest survey.
Galvanized coil
The SMU price range is $880–1,000/st, with an average of $940/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is down $20/st w/w, while the top end is unchanged. Our overall average is down $10/st w/w. Our price momentum indicator for galvanized remains pointing lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.
Galvanized .060” G90 benchmark: SMU price range is $977–1,097/st, averaging $1,037/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.
Galvanized lead times range from 5-9 weeks, averaging 7.0 weeks through our latest survey.
Galvalume coil
The SMU price range is $920–1,000/st, averaging $960/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. As the lower and top ends of our range are both down $20/st w/w, so is the overall average. Our price momentum indicator for Galvalume remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.
Galvalume .0142” AZ50, grade 80 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,214–1,294/st, averaging $1,254/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.
Galvalume lead times range from 6-8 weeks, averaging 6.8 weeks through our latest survey.
Plate
The SMU price range is $1,000–1,160/st, averaging $1,080/st FOB mill. The lower and top ends of our range are both down $40/st w/w, as is the overall average. Our price momentum indicator for plate remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.
Plate lead times range from 3-8 weeks, averaging 5.1 weeks through our latest survey.
SMU note: Above is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is also available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett Linton
David Schollaert
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