Steel Products

SMU price ranges: Sheet down again as market seeks bottom

Written by Brett Linton & David Schollaert

June 25, 2024

US sheet prices continued to drift lower this week on lackluster demand, short lead times, and ample supply.

SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price now stands at $670 per short ton (st) on average, down $15/st from last week. Hot band is down $175/st from a recent high of $845/st in early April. It is also at a nine-month low.

The high end of our HR range is $720/st. The low end is $620/st. Spot demand has been noticeably quiet, a fact that has been underscored by an increase in unsolicited mill offers, some market participants told SMU.

Nucor surprised some in the market by lowering its published spot price by $35/st to $680/st on Monday. Cliffs countered with a base of $720/st on Tuesday when it opened its August order book.

Despite mill-price jostling, sources generally agree that the top-end of the domestic hot-band market is now around or below the $700/st mark.

We observed a similar trend for tandem products. Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices were down $20/st week over week (w/w) to $975/st on average. Galvanized and Galvalume base prices were also down w/w to $950/st (-$35/st) and $980/st (-$10/st), respectively.

Our plate price was unchanged vs. last week, though heavy discounting continues. Sources speculate that Nucor could slash plate tags by at least $100/st with the opening of its August order book. The pricing notice is expected later this week.

Our momentum indicators continue to point lower, with concerns in some corners that supply could outweigh demand beyond the summer months.

Hot-rolled coil

The SMU price range is $620-720/st, averaging $670/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is down $10/st w/w, while the top end is down $20/st. Our overall average is down $15/st w/w. Our price momentum indicator for HR remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Hot rolled lead times range from 3-6 weeks, averaging 4.6 weeks as of our June 19 market survey.

Cold-rolled coil

The SMU price range is $920–1,030/st, averaging $975/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is down $20/st w/w, as is the top end. Our overall average is down $20/st w/w. Our price momentum indicator for CR remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Cold rolled lead times range from 4-9 weeks, averaging 6.7 weeks through our latest survey.

Galvanized coil

The SMU price range is $900–1,000/st, averaging $950/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is down $30/st w/w, while the top end is down $40/st. Our overall average is down $35/st w/w. Our price momentum indicator for galvanized remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 benchmark: SMU price range is $997–1,1097/st, averaging $1,047/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized lead times range from 5-9 weeks, averaging 7.0 weeks through our latest survey.

Galvalume coil

The SMU price range is $940–1,020/st, averaging $980/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is down $20/st w/w, while the top end is unchanged. Our overall average is down $10/st w/w. Our price momentum indicator for Galvalume remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, grade 80 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,234–1,314/st, averaging $1,274/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume lead times range from 6-8 weeks, averaging 6.8 weeks through our latest survey.

Plate

The SMU price range is $1,040–1,200/st, averaging $1,120/st FOB mill. Our range is unchanged w/w. Our price momentum indicator for plate remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Plate lead times range from 3-8 weeks, averaging 5.1 weeks through our latest survey.

SMU note: Above is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is also available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

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