Steel exports grow in April to an eight-month high

Monthly averages

Looking at exports on a 3-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the monthly fluctuations. Shipments had trended downward throughout the second half of 2023, falling to an 11-month low in December. The 3MMA changed course as it entered 2024, rising each month since. The latest 3MMA through April is up to 825,000 st, an 3% increase from March and now at a seven-month high.

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to further dampen month-to-month variations and highlight historical trends. From this perspective, steel exports have steadily trended upwards since bottoming out in mid-2020. The 12MMA reached a five-and-a-half year high in February of 805,000 st. This measure remains historically strong through April at 804,000 st.

Exports by product

Exports of most major flat-rolled steel products saw gains month on month (m/m). The biggest monthly movers were cold-rolled (+17%), hot-rolled (+16%), and galvanized sheet (+13%). As previously mentioned, galvanized exports are now at the highest level seen since mid-2017. Cold rolled exports are up to a nine-month high.

April exports are 10% higher than levels one year prior. Significant year-on-year (y/y) increases were seen in exports of hot rolled, plate in coils, galvanized, cold rolled, and other metallic coated, with all up 23-40%.

On a 3MMA basis, all but one of the steel product exports we track saw increases from March to April (other metallic coated). Hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheet both increased 6% m/m, while the remaining products saw increases of 2-3%. 3MMA rates for all products other than other metallic coated are at multi-month highs through April.

Note that most steel exported from the US is destined for USMCA trading partners Canada and Mexico. Of all exports in April 52% went to Mexico, followed by 41% to Canada. The next largest recipients were the Dominican Republic and China at less than 1% each.