SMU Data and Models
SMU survey: Buyers' Sentiment Indices plunge to near four-year lows
Written by Ethan Bernard
May 23, 2024
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both plummeted over 10 points this week, each hitting lows for 2024, according to our most recent survey data.
Every other week, we poll steel buyers about their companies’ chances of success in the current market as well as three to six months down the road. We use this information to calculate our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index and our Future Sentiment Index. (We have historical data dating to 2008. You can find that here.)
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index was +42 this week, diving 13 points from two weeks earlier to almost a four-year low (Figure 1). The last time it fell below such a reading was in August 2020 when it registered +34 and from a Covid-stricken reading of -8 in April 2020.
SMU’s Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures buyers’ feelings about business conditions three to six months in the future. The index crashed 12 point points this week to +56 (Figure 2). Future Sentiment has not seen a reading that low since June 2023 when it hit +52.
Measured as a three-month moving average, the Current Sentiment 3MMA dropped to +55.77 from +58.40 two weeks earlier.
Meanwhile, this week’s Future Sentiment 3MMA fell to +65.31 vs. +67.38 at the last market check (Figure 3).
What SMU survey respondents had to say:
“May not hit forecast but profitable.”
“Cautiously optimistic.”
“Top market participants are being irresponsible on the pricing side.”
“Losing money on inventory due to drop in prices.”
“Increased capacity for us coming on with opportunities to buy low will increase profits.”
“Fair at best given the outlook.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. A link to our methodology is here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU’s September at a glance
SMU’s monthly review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. This latest report includes data updated through Sept. 30.
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remain optimistic
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and continue to indicate optimism amongst steel buyers.
SMU survey: More buyers report mills willing to talk price
Over three quarters of the steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported that mills are negotiable on new order prices
SMU survey: Steel mill lead times remain short
We saw a slight upward movement in some products compared to early September, but nothing substantial enough to signal a shift in the market.