Tag: forecast

“There’s no sugar coating it – 2024 has been a challenging year,” the economist for ITR said.

Another presidential election cycle has come to an end. If you’re anything like me, part of you is just happy you no longer need to unsubscribe or “text STOP to opt-out” from the onslaught of political text messages this cycle produced.  

A roundup of aluminum news from CRU.

Summer is here, and a familiar sentiment has hit the hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market. Prices continue to decline in both the spot market and the futures market, with expectations of sub-$800 prices for the remainder of the year.

Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.

US light-vehicle (LV) sales fell to an unadjusted 1.32 million units in June, down 3.4% vs. year-ago levels, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. The year-on-year (y/y) dip in domestic LV sales came in with a 4% month-on-month (m/m) decline.

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts are an advanced indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, and other steel products.

I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

Steel mill lead times remain short according to our latest market canvass of steel service center and manufacturer buyers. Of the sheet and plate products SMU tracks, production times for all materials are nearing historical lows not seen in months or years.

Steel Dynamics Inc.’s (SDI’s) earnings slid in the second quarter, but the company's top executive believes steel tags are set to rise.

A month ago, when we last presented this column, there was a surprising amount of optimism in the presumably imminent reversal of the downtrend in hot-rolled steel prices in the second half of this year.

A roundup of CRU aluminum news.

First off, we hope everyone had a safe and happy July 4th holiday, with fireworks seen and BBQs attended. Many parts of the country are quite toasty at the moment, signaling that, yes, summer has indeed arrived. And looking at our most recent survey results, the summer doldrums have arrived as well.

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.”

Steel mill lead times remain near some of the lowest levels witnessed in months, according to our latest market canvass to steel service centers and manufacturers.

Sources contacted by RMU have delivered a bleak forecast for the market’s direction in July, potentially extending into August.

Many of our contacts remain bearish about the very short-term direction of steel prices. But a consensus seems to be forming, according to our latest survey results, that a bottom will occur in July. Consensus is also that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won't fall below $600 per short ton (st).

Flatbed rates remain roughly 20% higher than dry van but have stayed relatively calm for the first half of 2024, rising just 5% in the first half of the year and remaining negative on a year-over-year basis.

Algoma Steel’s quarterly and full-year results took a hit from an unplanned blast furnace outage earlier this year. However, with a modernized plate mill and two new EAFs slated to come online by the end of this year, the Canadian flat-rolled steel producer is looking to a greener future.

Please enjoy this roundup of recent news from the aluminum industry from our colleagues at CRU. EU to hit Chinese electric cars with tariffs up to 48% The European Commission notified carmakers on June 12 that it would provisionally apply additional duties of 17-38% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. The duties will be […]

The conventional wisdom is that sheet prices will trend down for the next few weeks (maybe the next two months) before rising again in August – around when lead times stretch into the busier fall months. We see that reflected in our survey results and in market chatter. And there are plenty of data points to choose from if you want to support of that position.

We’ve been writing a lot about sheet prices, and those for hot-rolled (HR) in particular, coming down. Here's one thing that hasn't dropped: The wide spread between HR and cold-rolled (CR) prices. That's what's in a chart below. And I'm using it as a rough proxy for galv and G'lume base prices as well

Crude oil prices are forecast to ease slightly through the remainder of the year, while natural gas prices are expected to move higher following recent lows

US light-vehicle (LV) sales rose to an unadjusted 1.43 million units in May, up 4.8% vs. year-ago levels, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. The year-on-year (y/y) growth in domestic LV sales came in with a 7.6% month-on-month (m/m) boost.

Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index moved up 2.5 points last week, though it remains in contraction territory and at one of the lowest readings in nearly a year, according to our latest survey data.

Where do sheet prices go from here? How is the state of steel demand? And is the dip in prices we've seen just a case of the summer doldrums, or is it something more significant?

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com.

It feels like the summer doldrums arrived a little earlier than usual this year. I know there had been rumors of a price hike. The prospect of a sharply lower June scrap trade probably didn't help the chances of that actually happening.

US manufacturing activity contracted in May for the second month in a row, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). After a brief expansion in March, ISM’s manufacturing index has since returned to contraction, where the manufacturing sector has been for 18 of the last 19 months. The ISM Manufacturing […]

Let's take a collective deep breath ::in:: and ::out::... And we're back. But where exactly are we? Are steel prices going up or down? Is demand really decelerating or is it an illusion? How is the market navigating the new mill pricing mechanisms?