Final Thoughts

Yes, the GM vote was close – 55% yes, 45% no, according to a UAW vote tracker. For a union ratification vote, that is. It was a blowout victory by the standards of some recent political elections.

Assembly Plants Hold Out

Several of GM’s big assembly plants – Lansing Delta Township and Flint Truck in Michigan, for example – voted against the contract. That was probably to be expected.

Center for Automotive Research (CAR) President and CEO Alan Amici said during a Community Chat on Wednesday that assembly plants, compared to other facilities (stamping plants, parts depots, etc.), were accepting contracts at a lower rate or even rejecting them.

That’s because those plants tend to be where workers with the most seniority are. Recall that the UAW contract offered a 25% wage increase. But new or recent hires are receiving raises of much higher than that. The result: “The younger voters, or the early in career people, are really interested in this and want to ratify it,” Amici said.

“The more senior people, perhaps they have less runway, they may be closer to retirement … and they are maybe seeing some limitations to that 25%,” he added.

What does that mean for Ford and Stellantis? As of Thursday evening, UAW members at Ford had voted 67% in favor the new contract and 33% against it. At Stellantis, it was roughly the same split.

Vote tallies had yet to posed for Ford’s (significant) operations in Dearborn, Mich. It was a similar story at Stellantis, parent company of Chrysler, where big facilities like Jefferson North Assembly had yet to post results.

If I had to place a bet now, I’d wager that all three contracts would be ratified. I’d also bet that the margin of victory might close as some of the bigger assembly plants post results.

If the contracts aren’t ratified, then things could get complicated.

Amici explained why on the Chat. If a contract were rejected, negotiations would have to be opened up again. That could undercut the consistency of the deals the UAW has negotiated among Ford, GM and Stellantis.

In other words, if one contract were opened again and its parameters changed, what would happen with contracts for the other two? And if negotiations were reopened, would a strike be turned back on to exert pressure during a new set of talks?

I hope such questions remain theoretical. Perhaps useful trivia to know when we get closer to April 30, 2028 – when the new UAW contracts are set to expire.

Non-Union Automakers in the UAW Crosshairs?

Besides, it’s probably not just the “Big Three” who don’t want more strikes. The UAW probably doesn’t want more either – at least not at Ford, GM, and Stellantis. The union would rather focus on organizing non-union plants, including EV producer Tesla.

And the 25% raise UAW members received – as well as COLA and a 401(k) bump – could get the attention of non-union workers, even in the traditionally non-union automotive industry in the Southeast, Amici said.

On average, wages are comparable between union-represented plants in the Great Lakes and non-union plants. But among more senior employees, union plants pay better. Benefits are also better at union shops, he said.

The gains negotiated by the UAW with the Big Three explain some of the “anticipatory” wage increases announced by Toyota and Honda, for example. But, “There are still definitely some gaps in wages and in total compensation,” Amici said.

I stayed up well after midnight on Sept. 15 to cover UAW President Shawn Fain’s speech announcing the historic strike. Many of Fain’s big announcements, then and afterward, happened in and around Detroit – and of course on Facebook Live.

Maybe some of you remember the “Eat the Rich” T-shirt Fain wore during one such strike update. Could we see Fain and that shirt making appearances in California, Texas, or the Southeast in the months ahead?

Tampa Steel Conference 2024

CAR and Alan Amici will join SMU again at the Tampa Steel Conference. Catch up with Amici and other experts across automotive, construction, and energy sectors on Jan. 28-30, 2024 at the JW Marriott Tampa Water Street. Register now!