SMU Price Ranges: Sheet Rebounds – Sustainable Rally or Dead-Cat Bounce?

SMU’s average hot-rolled coil (HRC) price in the meantime stands at $670 per ton ($33.50 per cwt), up $25 per ton from last week – and marking the first week-over-week (WoW) price gain for HRC since late June/early July.

Recall the summer uptick happened after U.S. Steel announced a $50-per-ton price hike in mid-June that briefly stabilized the sheet market.

Cold rolled and coated base prices saw similar increases, with cold rolled up $35 per ton WoW to $900 per ton on average, galvanized up $35 per ton WoW to $900 per ton on average, and Galvalume up $30 per ton WoW to $905 per ton.

Plate was at $1,465 per ton on average, up $10 per ton from a week ago. Plate’s gains were modest given high base prices, and sources reported little change in plate market dynamics.

Given the broad-base increases we’ve seen in sheet prices this week and the apparent end of big-volume discounts, we have adjusted our sheet momentum indicators from lower to higher.

We have also adjusted our plate momentum indicator from lower to neutral following Nucor’s decision to keep plate prices unchanged.

Hot-Rolled Coil

The SMU price range is $640–700 per net ton ($32.00–35.00 per cwt), with an average of $670 per ton ($33.50 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range increased $40 per ton vs. one week ago, while the top end of the range edged up $10 per ton compared to the prior week. Our overall average is up $25 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator for HRC is now pointing higher, a shift from lower, meaning SMU expects prices will increase over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 3–7 weeks

Cold-Rolled Coil

The SMU price range is $880–920 per net ton ($44.00–46.00 per cwt), with an average of $900 per ton ($45.00 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range rose $50 per ton WoW, while the top end was $20 per ton higher compared to a week ago. Our overall average is up $35 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator for CRC is now pointing higher, a shift from lower, meaning SMU expects prices will increase over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5–8 weeks

Galvanized Coil

The SMU price range is $870–930 per net ton ($43.50–46.50 per cwt), with an average of $900 per ton ($45.00 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up $40 per ton vs. last week, while the top end of our range was up $30 per ton WoW. Our overall average is up $35 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel is now pointing higher, a shift from lower, meaning SMU expects prices will increase over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $967–1,027 per ton with an average of $997 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 5-8 weeks

Galvalume Coil

The SMU price range is $860–950 per net ton ($43.00–47.50 per cwt), with an average of $905 per ton ($45.25 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up $10 per ton vs. last week, while the top end of the range was $50 per ton higher WoW. Our overall average was up $30 per ton compared to one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel is now pointing higher, a shift from lower, meaning SMU expects prices will increase over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,154–1,244 per ton with an average of $1,199 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-10 weeks

Plate

The SMU price range is $1,400–1,530 per net ton ($70.00–76.50 per cwt), with an average of $1,465 per ton ($73.25 per cwt) FOB mill. Both our lower end and top end of our range were $10 per ton higher compared to the week prior. Thus, our overall average is up $10 per ton vs. one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate shifted to neutral meaning there is no clear indication where prices will head over the next 30 days.

Plate Lead Times: 4-7 weeks

SMU Note: Above is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.