SMU Price Ranges: Sheet Slide Pauses Over Long Weekend

Mills remain willing to negotiate spot prices and to match lower prices from their competitors, some said. They predicted that prices would resume their downward slide later this week and into next as business activity ramps back up again.

Prices are also likely to continue to move lower, at least in the short term, because many buyers have moved to the sidelines on concerns about future declines. Some said it amounted to a “buyers’ strike.”

With producers still profitable at current spot prices, there is little to stop them from going lower to bring in orders, they added.

SMU’s hot-rolled coil price in the meantime is unchanged at $990 per ton ($49.50 per cwt). Plate prices were also flat. Cold-rolled and coated prices were down $5 per ton. 

SMU’s sheet momentum indicators remain pointed lower on expectations that prices will continue to fall in the weeks ahead.

Our plate momentum indicator is still at neutral following Nucor’s announcement of unchanged prices last week and on plate having largely decoupled form sheet price trends over the last ~1.5 years.

Hot-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $960–1,020 per net ton ($48.00–51.00 per cwt), with an average of $990 per ton ($49.50 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range was up $20 per ton vs. one week ago, while the top end was down $20 per ton week on week (WoW). Our overall average is unchanged WoW. Our price momentum indicator for hot-rolled coil points downward, meaning we expect the market will be down over the next 30 days.

Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 4–8 weeks

Cold-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,130–1,250 per net ton ($56.50–62.50 per cwt), with an average of $1,190 per ton ($59.50per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was unchanged WoW, while the top end was down $10 per ton compared to a week ago. Our overall average is down $5 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled coil points downward, meaning we expect the market will be down over the next 30 days.

Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 5–10 weeks

Galvanized Coil: The SMU price range is $1,100–1,230 per net ton ($55.00–61.50 per cwt), with an average of $1,165 per ton ($58.25 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was unchanged vs. last week, while the top end of our range was down $10 per ton vs. one week ago. Our overall average is down $5 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel points downward, meaning we expect the market will be down over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,197–1,327 per ton with an average of $1,262 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 5–10 weeks

Galvalume Coil: The SMU price range is $1,190–1,240 per net ton ($59.50-62.00 per cwt), with an average of $1,215 per ton ($60.75 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of the range was down $10 per ton WoW, while the top end of the range was unchanged vs. the week prior. Our overall average is down $5 per ton when compared to one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel now points downward, meaning we expect the market will be down over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,484–1,534 per ton with an average of $1,509 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 6–10 weeks

Plate: The SMU price range is $1,460–1,570 per net ton ($73.00–78.50 per cwt), with an average of $1,515 per ton ($75.75 per cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of our range was ucnahged compared to the prior week, while the top end of our range was also unchanged WoW. Our overall average was sidways vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate moved to neutral, meaning we are unsure what direction prices will go over the next 30 days.

Plate Lead Times: 5–10 weeks

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

By Michael Cowden, michael@steelmarketupdate.com