SMU Price Ranges: Unprecedented Stability, For Now

What we’ve seen for the last month is an almost shocking degree of stability after two years of unprecedented volatility. The question now is whether that stability will last.

Market participants agreed that mill price increases in August coupled with outages and idlings hadn’t to date succeeded in lifting tags. But those moves have put a floor under prices, they said, even if some questioned how durable that floor would be moving into the fourth quarter.

It was a different story in plate, where Nucor announced a $120 per ton price decrease that other mills have since followed. Market participants in that segment said they expect further declines given short lead times and uneven demand.

SMU’s price momentum indicators for sheet remain at Neutral. Our momentum indicator for plate continues to point Lower.

Hot-Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $740–810 per net ton ($37.00–40.50/cwt) with an average of $775 per ton ($38.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range increased $20 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end decreased $10 per ton. Our overall average is up $5 per ton from last week. Our price momentum indicator on hot-rolled steel points to Neutral until the market establishes a clear direction.

Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 3–6 weeks* (preliminary ranges from our ongoing market survey, final lead times data will be released on Thursday)

Cold-Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $1,060–1,160 per net ton ($53.00–58.00/cwt) with an average of $1,110 per ton ($55.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $20 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end remained unchanged. Our overall average is down $10 per ton from one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled steel points to Neutral until the market establishes a clear direction.

Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 4–6 weeks*

Galvanized Coil: SMU price range is $1,040–1,140 per net ton ($52.00–57.00/cwt) with an average of $1,090 per ton ($54.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $30 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end increased $20 per ton. Our overall average is down $5 per ton from last week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel points to Neutral until the market establishes a clear direction.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,137–1,237 per ton with an average of $1,187 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4–7 weeks*

Galvalume Coil: SMU price range is $1,050–1,150 per net ton ($52.50-57.50/cwt) with an average of $1,100 per ton ($55.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $20 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end increased $10 per ton. Our overall average is down $5 per ton from one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel points to Neutral until the market establishes a clear direction.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,344–1,444 per ton with an average of $1,394 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 6–7 weeks*

Plate: SMU price range is $1,600–1,640 per net ton ($80.00–82.00/cwt) with an average of $1,620 per ton ($81.00/cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of our range remained unchanged compared to one week ago, while the upper end decreased $60 per ton. Our overall average is down $30 per ton from last week. Our price momentum indicator on plate steel points to Lower, meaning we expect prices to decrease over the next 30 days.

Plate Lead Times: 4–6 weeks*

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

By Michael Cowden, Michael@SteelMarketUpdate.com