Hot Rolled Futures: You May Be Wrong, You May Be Right

Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Prior to Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management for Feralloy Corporation, Cargill Steel Service Centers, and Plateplus Inc. You can learn more about Metal Edge at www.metaledgepartners.com. Bryan can be reached at Bryan@MetalEdgePartners.com for queries/comments/questions.

As I was driving into the office this morning, the Billy Joel song from the Glass Houses album “You May Be Right” played on the radio, and I chuckled to myself that the chorus so perfectly defines the dilemma of the steel price “forecaster”. For those born after 1978 who don’t know who Billy Joel is or this specific song, it opens with the sound of breaking glass. And shortly thereafter Joel breaks into a chorus that goes, “You may be wrong for all I know, but you may be right.” Seemed like a good analogy for the steel/futures market.