Import arbitrations expressed via futures may become enticing as coil price spreads expand. The spread market in CME US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is currently navigating a period of volatility, with prices fluctuating post-election, leaving traders uncertain about the market's direction.
No more excuses! The election is over. Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Monday January 20 with the Republican party in control of Congress. Now, it is time to get back to work!
2024 started with a $200 per short ton (st), one-week demon drop in the CME Midwest hot-rolled (HR) coil futures. Then, HR futures consolidated in the low $800s/st with the April future trading to as low as $770/st as the curve shifted into contango or upward sloping. A big move was expected, and a big […]
The March scrap trade is set to pick up steam next week.
After holding steady for most of January, the hot rolled (HR) index has started to gain some downward momentum. In the last 30 days, it has declined $89 per short ton (st) and is sitting just above $1,000/st.
Radius Recycling thinks that an end to the UAW strike could relieve pressure on a tight domestic scrap market. Scrap supplies have fallen because of lower manufacturing, construction, and demolition activity as well as “the slowing economy overall,” Radius chairman, president, and CEO Tamara Lundgren said. Inflation and higher interest rates have contributed to that […]
The summer cycle has brought more focus around the uncertainty of where HR prices are headed. Spot indexes continue to bleed lower despite price hikes from sheet mills. Market talk is of still lower prices as the gap grows between the slow-moving index versus expectations for HR future prices declines. (The index likely reflects smaller, […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Hot-rolled futures have pushed higher in year-end thin trading. December daily futures trading volumes hovered around 19,000 short tons (ST) per […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Over the last month, HR index prices have continued to decline, but at a much slower pace. The most recent index […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled The indicated value of HR spot has declined roughly $31 per short ton ($687/ST to $656/ST) this month. For comparison purposes, […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled HR spot physical indexes have remained anchored just above the mid-$700/net ton area with one more week to go before the […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Hot-rolled (HR) futures participants market watch as they wait for signs that demand will return even as the dollar continues to […]
SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. He and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients. They also provide process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled This futures market has no direction currently, summing up the sentiment in hot rolled as of late. After a slight index […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Weekly changes in the value of spot HR have continued to drop an average of about $30/net ton but it should […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled The HR futures market has been somewhat subdued this month, which is reflected in the price changes for July. Over the […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled After a brisk bout of futures activity in HR to close out the first half of 2022, we are experiencing much […]
There has been a broad consensus that wherever the current market bottoms will be higher than pre-pandemic norms. But as our latest survey results indicate, estimates of where that bottom is keep moving lower. About half of respondents to our latest survey think prices will be $800-899 per ton two months from now. In late […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled HR futures are coming back to life after a quiet spell in May. Month to date in June more than 225,000 […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Prior to Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Physical HR prices continue to decline at a steady pace. Spot indexes have declined almost $140/ST since the end of […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Recent HR spot price increases have continued to decelerate this month as prices near $1,500/ton. Initial market metallic supply concerns […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled As the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues to smolder the upward trend in spot HR prices appears to have stalled this week […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled The Ukraine/Russia war continues to fester, leaving all markets with maximum uncertainty. HR physical prices have risen just over $300/ST […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled In spite of a large drop in the HR index this past week (sub $950/ST), the forward curve in HR […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Will the velocity of the down move in hot rolled prices be maintained as HR price spreads to global prices […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled For obvious reasons 2021 was a very active year for HR futures – the runaway rise in prices helped bring […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Hot rolled futures sellers are betting that the price of HR will drop significantly in December based on the latest […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Spot HR has declined each of the last three Wednesday’s for a total loss of $86/ST. Spot HR has lost […]