Economy
SMU's March At-a-Glance
Written by Brett Linton
April 6, 2021
For the seventh consecutive month, steel prices rose throughout March, fueled by a continuation of strong demand and limited supply. Hot rolled steel prices averaged $1,300 per ton by the middle of the month, far exceeding any historical price record, and reached $1,330 by the last week of March. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator has remained unchanged since the August 2020 adjustment to Higher, indicating prices are expected to rise further in the short term.
March scrap prices rose 9-14% over February, with busheling up $70 per ton, shred up $40 and HMS up $35. Zinc prices were relatively flat throughout the month, while aluminum prices increased 3% and reached a multi-year high in the fourth week of March.
The SMU Buyers Sentiment Index continues to show a high level of optimism, ending the month at +69. The three-month moving average reached +68.67 as of last Thursday, the highest reading in three years.
Hot rolled lead times extended further, peaking at a record 9.03 weeks in early-March, while the percentage of buyers reporting mills willing to negotiate on HR prices remained at a tiny 3% all month.
Key indicators of steel demand overall remained positive. The ISM Manufacturing Index indicated further expansion in the economy for the 10th consecutive month, and the AIA Billings Index recovered for the second month in a row. Construction spending remained strong in February. Total U.S. steel imports and apparent steel supply both have shown gains in the past months.
See the chart below for other key metrics in the month of March:
By Brett Linton, Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Economy
Architecture billings flat in October after months of contraction
Architecture firms reported stable billings in October, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. This follows 20 months of contracting business conditions.
Trump taps Lutnick to be Commerce Secretary
President-elect Donald Trump has named Wall Street veteran Howard Lutnick as the new US Secretary of Commerce.
New York state manufacturing activity ramps up to multi-year high
New York state’s manufacturing sector saw substantial recovery in November, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
CRU: Dollar and bond yields rise, metal prices fall as Trump wins election
Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.
ISM: Manufacturing index fell in Oct to lowest point of ’24
Domestic manufacturing contracted for the seventh straight month in October, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This marks the 23rd time in the last 24 months that it has been in contraction.