CRU: Robust Manufacturing Helps Margins Stay High in March

As a result, U.S. Midwest HRC prices increased by 9.1% m/m. Average sheet production costs increased by 9.2% m/m due to increases in iron ore and coal costs. As such, spot EBITDA margins of U.S. sheet producers were almost flat m/m. Implied sheet mill capacity utilization increased by 1% m/m during March, to 87.3%. 

OUTLOOK: U.S. sheet demand will stay strong during April due to the economic stimulus, therefore, spot EBITDA margins and implied sheet mill capacity utilization is expected to stabilize at current high levels during April. 

Europe

The German business climate index in manufacturing rose to a 34-month high and the Italian confidence climate index in manufacturing increased to a 21-month high during March. Many countries in Europe announced stimulus packages in late-2020 that have prompted a recovery in manufacturing. Also, the U.S. stimulus package is expected to boost the industrial activities of export-oriented major manufacturing countries such as Germany. Passenger car production in Germany increased by 36.5% m/m during February. On the supply side, sheet product stocks at distributors fell by 6.1% m/m and the stock-to-shipment ratio decreased by 5.5% m/m during February. European crude steel production also fell by 4.8% m/m during the month. As a result, HRC prices increased by ~7% m/m across Europe in March, whereas average sheet production costs increased by only 4.6% m/m. Therefore, spot EBITDA margins of European sheet producers increased by 2.6% m/m during March and implied sheet mill capacity utilization increased by 2% m/m, to 80.3%.

OUTLOOK: Implied sheet mill capacity utilization of European sheet producers is expected to increase during April; however, spot EBITDA margins will fall due to rising availability of sheet products. 

China

The Chinese NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 2.6% m/m during March. Chinese vehicle and white goods production have notably increased during the first two months of 2021, by 92.3% and 75.0% y/y respectively. However, Chinese crude steel production increased by 13.1% y/y during January to February 2021 and sheet production increased by 25.4% y/y during the same period. As a result, Chinese HRC prices increased by 9.3% m/m. Average sheet production costs increased by 5% m/m due to a rise in iron ore, coal and metallics costs. As such, spot EBITDA margins of sheet producers increased by 1.6% m/m and implied sheet mill capacity utilization increased by 1.3% m/m during March, to 79.7%. 

OUTLOOK: Chinese manufacturing activity will stay robust during April, which will further lift sheet product demand. However, production cuts in Tangshan and other regions in China will reduce sheet supply. Therefore, both spot EBITDA margins and implied sheet capacity utilization of Chinese sheet producers are expected to rise during April. 

India

Indian sheet demand continues to fall as vehicle production further declined in February and recent data on the index of durable goods production showed a decline. As a result, HRC exports from India increased by 25.6% m/m during March and flat product imports fell by 11.1% m/m. Indian crude steel production and sheet output stayed strong during February; however, sheet supply disruption from POSCO’s downstream processing unit limited sheet supplies during March. As a result, HRC prices in India fell by only ~2% m/m. Average sheet production costs increased by 3.8% m/m due to increases in coal, metallics and natural gas prices. As a result, spot EBITDA margins of Indian sheet producers declined by 2.6% m/m and implied sheet mill capacity utilization decreased by 3% m/m. 

OUTLOOK: Strong export orders at Indian mils will lead to higher domestic sheet prices in April. Therefore, both implied mill capacity utilization and spot EBITDA margins of Indian sheet producers are expected to rise in April.

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