SMU Data and Models
November at a Glance
Written by John Packard
December 1, 2015
The month of November saw a continuation of lower flat rolled steel prices, Momentum and Sentiment as buyers and sellers struggle to find a bottom to what has become an extended slide going back to May 2015.
November benchmark hot rolled prices (SMU average) Dropped $15 per ton during the course of the month and are now down $310 per ton from the market cycle peak achieved on May 13, 2015 at $685 per ton.
The extended drop in prices can be attributed to a number of factors many of which are spelled out in the table shown below:
• Scrap prices were down an average of $15 per gross ton (some market more, east coast was less).
• Iron ore spot prices in China dropped $6.70/dmt on 62% Fe fines since the end of October until the last day of November.
• Domestic (USA) steel mill capacity utilization rates dropped during the month ending last week at 62.2%.
• SMU service center Apparent Excess flat rolled inventories continues to be above 1 million tons. However, Apparent Excess was forecast to reach 1.2 million tons so the number is a net positive as it is going in the right direction (Apparent Excess is a Premium product).
• Imports were down but were still well above the 22-24 percent of total apparent steel supply.
SMU Sentiment Index 3 month moving average (3MMA) has been steadily becoming less optimistic having gone from +53.33 in September to +39.83 during November.
The HRC Futures markets are not painting a rosy picture for the next seven months as they have HRC prices moving up to $408 per ton by the month of June.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Mills unlikely to budge on price, buyers say
Four out of every five steel buyers who responded to our latest market survey say domestic mills are unwilling to negotiate on new order spot pricing. Mills have shown little flexibility on pricing for nearly two months.
SMU’s March at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through March 31.
SMU Survey: Steel buyers maintain confident market outlook
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices showed mixed movements this week but remain strong, reflecting continued confidence among steel buyers.
SMU Survey: Perspectives differ on impact of Trump tariffs
Are President Trump's tariff policies helping? Steel buyers offer their opinions on the impact of Trump's tariffs.
SMU Survey: Lead times stabilize as tariff-induced buying slows
After a multi-week increase, buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that lead times are stabilizing or marginally declining for each of the sheet and plate products we track.